Bitcoin continues to experience a downward trend, and market sentiment is weak. First, let’s look at an interesting chart, BlackRock currently holds 552,555 BTC, Grayscale holds 206,860 BTC, and Grayscale's holdings have been decreasing while BlackRock's have been increasing. Does it resemble the current market situation, with bulls and bears battling it out? Who do you think has a higher chance of winning?
As Ethereum breaks through the $3,400 mark, the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds 2.3% from today's low to 0.03657, reaching a new high for the week.
Recently, compared to Bitcoin consolidating at a low of $90,000, Ethereum's trend has been stronger. According to CoinGecko data, Ethereum has broken through $3,400, currently reported at $3,410, with a 1% increase in the past 24 hours and a 4% rise in the past 7 days. In contrast, Bitcoin has fallen 1.1% in the past 24 hours, and earlier today it even dropped below $93,000, hitting a low of $92,868.96.
ETH/BTC ratio rebounded 2.3%
As Ethereum strengthens, the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds 2.3% from today's low of 0.03575, reaching a peak of 0.03657 around 9 AM, marking a new high for the week.
As of the deadline, the ETH/BTC ratio is reported at 0.03633, with a 1.48% increase in the past 24 hours.
Many fans are asking if it resembles the situation on May 19, when will it bottom out and rebound?
Although the market has shown a downward trend recently, compared to the significant drop on May 19 in history, both involve a deleveraging process, but there are significant differences. The May 19 incident was a major correction and collapse after a comprehensive explosion in various sectors, while the current downward trend resembles the deleveraging phase before the new uptrend starts, where 90% of altcoins have yet to experience significant gains and only show initial signs of an uptrend.
To reverse the current downward trend and welcome a rebound, the key lies in whether Bitcoin can lead the next round of altcoin rallies. Historically, the market experienced a month of consolidation between December 2020 and January of the following year, while the current adjustment has lasted for 13 days. If it undergoes another half-month of fluctuations, the market may stabilize.
Ethereum's strong performance is a positive signal for the arrival of altcoin season. Recently, Ethereum's price has shown signs of stabilization, oscillating upward for several days, indicating a positive market outlook. It is worth noting that in the first year and first quarter after each Ethereum halving, its price has witnessed strong surges, such as a 518% increase in 2017 and 160% growth in 2021. Looking ahead to 2025, we have reason to expect Ethereum to once again demonstrate its appreciation potential. With key support levels, maintaining confidence and actively positioning may help seize the upcoming market opportunities.
The arrival of altcoin season is a crucial moment for the vast majority of retail investors holding altcoins. Due to the general lack of Bitcoin holdings among retail investors, the prosperity of the altcoin market has become their main avenue for wealth growth. If this bull market misses the push from the altcoin season, many retail investors may face severe challenges and may even have to seek other livelihoods.
Therefore, for investors, reasonably adjusting position allocation is particularly important. It is recommended to allocate Bitcoin, value coins, and altcoins in a ratio of 5:3:2. This strategy helps to balance risk and return and is expected to outperform most market participants in the long run. I firmly believe that the bull market is not yet over and the altcoin season will eventually come, but the key is whether investors can hold their ground until the brilliant bloom of the altcoin season.
Altcoins that should be bottomed out during this pullback:
1. AI agent sector, such as secondary market PHA, ATA;
2. Coins held by Grayscale and BlackRock: ZEN, ONDO, etc.;
3. Trump-themed coins: ETH, COW, AAVE;
4. Meme coins heavily backed by market makers: GOAT, MOODENG, PNUT.
For reference only, trade at your own risk. Personally, I would prioritize PHA, ZEN, COW.