1. Market Observation
Keywords: ETH, BTC, MiCA
As the year-end approaches, the market is filled with expectations and disagreements about Bitcoin's performance in the coming years. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor revealed that the company holds 444,000 Bitcoins, valued at about $41.4 billion, and hinted at further purchase plans. El Salvador continues to increase its holdings, now with over 6,000 Bitcoins worth $569 million. However, Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $100,000 support level, and sideways fluctuations increase market uncertainty.
Crypto strategist predicts that the Bitcoin bull market may end on a high note. Blockware Solutions predicts that Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $400,000 by 2025, driven by Federal Reserve policy, corporate adoption, and Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. NBA legend Scottie Pippen is bolder, pointing to $1 million as the next key price target for Bitcoin. However, the market is not entirely optimistic. Some analysts warn that Bitcoin may adjust in the short term, even dropping to $76,000. Additionally, Bill Gates continues to express skepticism about Bitcoin, criticizing its lack of productivity and considering it a risky asset class. Whether the U.S. will include Bitcoin in its financial reserves remains controversial, and the balance between dollar hegemony and cryptocurrency opportunities is yet to be observed.
In the Ethereum market, futures data indicates reduced selling pressure, with signs of recovery beginning to emerge. Meanwhile, after transferring 200,000 ETH to Kraken, some long-dormant old crypto wallets have become active again, signaling hope in the volatile crypto market. The crypto world remains full of uncertainties, but it also suggests that the next transformative moment is approaching.
2. Key Data (as of December 30, 09:05 HKT)
S&P 500: 5,970.84 points (Year-to-date +25.18%)
NASDAQ: 19,722.03 points (Year-to-date +31.38%)
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: 4.626% (Year-to-date +74.51 basis points)
U.S. Dollar Index: 108.00 (Year-to-date +6.86%)
Bitcoin: $934,000.96 (Year-to-date +120.99%), daily spot trading volume of $30.27 billion
Ethereum: $3,380.99 (Year-to-date +48.19%), daily spot trading volume of $13.93 billion
3. ETF Flow (December 27 EST)
Bitcoin ETF: -$297.75 million
Ethereum ETF: +$47.77 million
4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (January 3, 11:00 PM)
Actual: Pending / Previous: 48.4% / Forecast: 48.3%
5. Hot News
This week's preview | Claims processing for FTX will begin on January 3, 2025; (Crypto Asset Market (MiCA)) to take effect
This week's macro outlook: The market is expected to remain calm during the New Year's holiday, but economic data could contradict the Federal Reserve
Report: 51 countries/regions ban crypto assets, some economies regulate through legal adjustments or new legislation
Hamster Kombat will build an L2 blockchain on the TON chain
FLock announces token economics and airdrop plan: 66.7% allocated to the community and ecosystem
The chair of Germany's Free Democratic Party calls for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to be included in central bank reserves
Data: Tokens such as SUI, OP, ZETA will see significant unlocks next week, with SUI unlocking worth approximately $270 million
Tether CEO retweets several posts stating that USDT will not be deemed illegal in Europe on December 30
Modular blockchain Sophon completes mining migration and opens mainnet mining
El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves reach 6,000, worth approximately $569 million
VIRTUAL market cap surpasses $3.428 billion, rising to 47th in the cryptocurrency market cap rankings
ai16z proposes an upgraded token economics model, suggesting the launch of a Launchpad
Michael Saylor: 60 companies hold over 590,000 BTC
Galaxy Research annual forecast: BTC will break $150,000 in the first half of the year, ETH will exceed $5,500
The IRS requires DeFi brokers to report digital asset sales gains and collect user trading information starting in 2027
Supported by OSL - Hong Kong's largest over-the-counter trading platform, continuously providing regulated digital asset services since 2018.
