Compiled by: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Last week's performance of crypto spot ETFs
The US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $377 million.
Last week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $377 million, with total net assets reaching $10.66 billion and an average daily trading volume of $2.7 billion. The outflows mainly came from Fidelity FBTC, with a net outflow of $183 million.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has been online for 50 weeks, and BlackRock IBIT's holdings have risen from 2,621 in the first week to 552,555, fully absorbing the selling pressure from Grayscale GBTC. Additionally, the net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 is 81 times that of gold ETFs.
All 6 ETFs are in a net outflow state, with the following four ETFs experiencing the largest net outflows:
BlackRock IBIT experienced a net outflow of $21.1 million, with net assets reaching $52.15 billion.
Bitwise's BITB had a net outflow of $59.5 million, with net assets reaching $3.82 billion.
Invesco BTCO had a net outflow of $39.8 million, with net assets reaching $735 million.
Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $58.9 million, with net assets reaching $19.54 billion.
Source: Farside Investors
The US Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $349 million.
The US Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net inflow for 5 consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of $349 million last week, bringing the total net assets to $12.11 billion and an average daily trading volume of $367 million.
BlackRock ETHA and Fidelity FETH are the main sources of net inflows, with inflows of $181 million and $160 million, respectively. In addition, five ETFs showed no fund movement.
Note: The US stock market is closed on December 25 for Christmas, so there is no data for that day.
Source: Farside Investors
The Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 368.65 Bitcoins.
The Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF has seen fund outflows for the fourth consecutive week, with a net outflow of 368.65 Bitcoins last week, marking the highest single-day outflow since July 30, with net assets reaching $40.9 million.
Last week, the Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF had no fund flow, with net assets reaching $6.341 million.
Note: The Hong Kong market is closed on December 25 and 26 due to Christmas.
Data: SoSoValue
Performance of crypto spot ETF options
As of December 27, the total nominal trading volume of US Bitcoin spot ETF options was $411 million, with a nominal total long-short ratio of 2.93. As of December 26, the nominal total open interest of US Bitcoin spot ETF options reached $8.29 billion, with a nominal total open interest long-short ratio of 1.88, further indicating the dominance of the bullish market.
In addition, the implied volatility is 63.22%, reflecting that market expectations for volatility remain high.
Data: SoSoValue
Overview of last week's crypto ETF dynamics
Last week, 5 institutions applied for crypto ETFs.
The ETF Store President Nate Geraci disclosed that 5 institutions have applied for crypto ETFs, namely:
Strive Bitcoin Bond ETF;
Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF;
REX BTC Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF;
VolatilityShares Solana Futures-based ETF, covering 1x, 2x, and -1x leveraged exposure;
ProShares applied to launch Bitcoin hedge ETFs based on the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ 100 Index, and Gold.
Opinions and analysis regarding crypto ETFs
Analysis: The net inflow of funds into the Ethereum spot ETF this month has reached a record high, possibly laying the foundation for a rebound next year.
The US Ethereum spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of over $2.1 billion in December, a record high, almost double the inflow in November. The growth in ETF inflows is an optimistic signal for Ethereum's price trend, further supporting asset management giant VanEck's prediction that Ethereum will reach $6,000 at its cyclical peak by 2025.
According to technical chart patterns, crypto analyst TMV stated that Ethereum has entered an accumulation wave, which may help ETH prices break through $4,400 in the first quarter of 2025, but if it retraces below $2,914, the theory will be invalidated.
Bybit's spokesperson stated that Ethereum's price may rise and break through $4,000 before Trump takes office on January 20.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) Author: I do not trust BlackRock ETFs and prefer to keep Bitcoin in my own wallet.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) Author Robert Kiyosaki stated on social platform X, "BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is selling Bitcoin, I prefer to store Bitcoin in my own wallet. I do not trust Bitcoin held in BlackRock ETFs."
BlackRock is suppressing Bitcoin prices so that large holders can buy Bitcoin below $100,000.
I will continue to buy more Bitcoin because Bitcoin will continue to rise. I predict Bitcoin will reach $350,000 in 2025.
Citigroup: Cryptocurrencies will surge in 2025 driven by Trump policies and ETF inflows.
Citigroup analysts predict that driven by Trump policies, increasing ETF inflows, and innovations in stablecoins, cryptocurrencies will see strong growth in 2025. Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 may just be the beginning.
Citigroup analysts expect a regulatory shift and explained that this is more about removing obstacles than a story of deregulation, meaning that policies may reduce previous barriers to growth rather than relax regulations. Widespread adoption remains key to the long-term success of cryptocurrencies.
CryptoQuant: In December, Bitcoin accumulation addresses increased by 225,000, and the total supply of BTC available for sale on exchanges and ETFs decreased by approximately 590,000.
On-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant's latest report shows that as of December 23, Bitcoin accumulation addresses increased by 225,280 BTC this month, a month-on-month increase of 82.6%. During the same period, total selling liquidity (the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges and ETFs) decreased by approximately 590,000, with a sharp decline of 520,000 between December 22-23.
The over-the-counter (OTC) supply decreased from 421,000 to 403,000, and the liquidity inventory ratio dropped from 12 months to 5.5 months. Notably, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC reduced their holdings by nearly 8,600 BTC this month, but short-term holders' holdings have reached 3.81 million, just 70,000 short of the historical peak.
Matrixport: Recent inflows into Ethereum ETFs continue, and a re-entry opportunity may be coming.
Matrixport released a daily chart stating that Ethereum and Bitcoin are similar, often losing momentum during significant price surges, especially when prices rise over 60% in 30 days. Historical data shows that this is usually a good opportunity to take profits. The current price has retraced to the same level as a month ago, which may indicate an opportunity to re-enter, especially if the cryptocurrency bull market is expected to continue into 2025.
It is worth noting that Ethereum has not exhibited the higher beta characteristics seen in the previous bull market during this rebound. However, it remains a favored asset among investors. The recent continuous inflow of ETF funds is the best proof of this. This strong demand not only highlights Ethereum's important position but also indicates that even though its performance in this cycle has slightly underperformed expectations, it remains a focus of attention.
OSL executives: The Hong Kong cryptocurrency spot ETF will see "significant growth" in 2025.
OSL Managing Director Ryan Miller stated that trading volume and inflow of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs are expected to see "significant growth."
It stated that the global and local positive sentiment will make these funds' activities more active. The favorable stance of the new US government towards the crypto industry, combined with interest rate cuts, has had a positive impact on global sentiment and cryptocurrency prices. The Hong Kong government is also continuing to promote crypto-friendly regulatory measures and has introduced initiatives such as tax exemptions for hedge funds and private equity firms' cryptocurrency investment gains. Therefore, the trading volume and inflow of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs will see "significant growth."
CF Benchmarks: It is expected that by 2025, the allocation ratio of investment advisors to BTC and ETH ETFs will exceed 50%.
CF Benchmarks stated that investment advisors may replace hedge funds as the largest holders of US-listed spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs next year. The company predicts that investment advisors' share in the BTC and ETH ETF market will exceed 50% by 2025.
CF Benchmarks stated in their annual report: "We expect that investment advisors' allocation to these two assets will exceed 50%, as the $88 trillion US wealth management industry begins to adopt these tools, and net flows will surpass the record $40 billion in 2024."
Bloomberg analysts: issuers may wait until Paul Atkins/Trump officially takes office to apply for the Dogecoin ETF.
Regarding the statement from the President of The ETF Store that it is shocking that ETF issuers have not yet applied for a Dogecoin ETF, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas agreed, adding, "I originally thought we would see issuers submit applications before Christmas. Now it seems we may have to wait until Atkins (new SEC Chair Paul Atkins)/Trump officially takes office."
