The following text is compiled from the series Twitter Space #Dialogue with Traders, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X0
Guest this episode: SaBiBro, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro666
SaBiBro's trading journey: From the exchange to the transformation of on-chain strategies
SaBiBro, a pioneer in on-chain data-driven trading. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in its listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and in-depth due diligence (Due Diligence, abbreviated as DD). This experience gave him profound industry knowledge while also laying a solid foundation for data analysis.
In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the popularity of the NFT market gradually declined, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading robots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.
SaBiBro's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: it does not focus on narrative valuation but instead emphasizes on-chain monitoring and strict profit-taking and loss-cutting rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear profit-taking and loss-cutting strategies, trading can free itself from the interference of subjective emotions.
At the same time, he also pointed out that trading logic needs continuous optimization. Initially, he focused on the trading behaviors of smart money on-chain, then expanded to team trading behaviors (conspiracy groups), and finally to the key main player address behaviors of individual tokens. By deeply analyzing these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of trading decisions.
Currently, SaBiBro's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. Additionally, the recently performing #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000x return in a short period. However, for SaBiBro, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond profit.
The true value of MOODENG lies in validating the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main player addresses, he confirmed the trading theory of 'following the main players'. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experience support for future trading decisions.
How to use data and discipline to secure victory in trading?
In the trading process, SaBiBro emphasizes the standardized strategy of 'doubling out the capital and cutting losses in half', which is the core of his risk management. This strategy avoids market emotional interference with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.
In trading, maintaining a win rate of over 33% can achieve positive EV. For example:
• Profit-taking scenario: Sell all after the asset doubles, achieving 100% profit.
• Loss-cutting scenario: Sell all after the asset is halved, incurring a 50% loss.
Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the long-term returns of traders will show positive growth. SaBiBro's strategy is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset, and avoiding the shaking of trading decisions due to short-term market fluctuations.
At the same time, SaBiBro's team has developed a series of tools centered on data to provide users with in-depth insights into market hotspots and main player behaviors:
Token insider analysis (CashCash Bot)
Through big data, analyzing the holding structure of tokens and address behavior. Its core functions include:
Main player behavior identification: Filter addresses with transfer associations or collective trading characteristics and classify them as 'gangs' or 'main player clusters'.
Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitatively and quantitatively assess the holding concentration of tokens to identify whether the main players are accumulating.
Behavior model optimization: Combine the transfer behaviors of addresses (such as using cross-chain bridges or mixers) with on-chain capital flow trends to form precise predictions of main player operations.
FOMO CALL signal
This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on the team's accumulation of thousands of smart money addresses database. When a group of historically successful addresses collectively buys a certain token in a short period, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal helps users quickly capture market hotspots and assess whether the token has potential short-term upward space.
These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main player's accumulation level of a certain token reaches a peak, and the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of multiple smart money, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combining profit-taking and loss-cutting strategies.
How to capture the main players' movements through data and take action?
In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit through accumulation and distribution, during which the on-chain holding behavior inevitably changes. The core of the trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main players through data. For example, during the accumulation phase, the main players exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.
However, as more people adopt similar strategies, the main players may adjust their strategies or even hide their actions. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify the possible hidden actions of the main players. SaBiBro believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.
SaBiBro's strategy begins with tracking 'smart money', which typically achieves a win rate of over 40% in the market and achieves significant profits. By filtering out these addresses through tools, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list to continuously monitor a group of high-performing address clusters.
The core methods of the strategy include:
Identify collective actions: The team monitoring found that certain address clusters synchronize their actions, including collective accumulation and distribution behavior. This pattern becomes the foundation of the strategy.
Position control: When following the main players, avoid entering the top 100 holding list, keeping a low profile to avoid affecting the main players' operation rhythm. Typically, the buying position does not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
Signal response: When a collective entry phenomenon occurs for a certain token from the clusters on the monitoring list, the strategy follows up with small trial purchases to avoid prematurely exposing its actions.
Strategy case: The trading process of Moodeng
The successful trading of MOODENG is an important milestone for SaBiBro's team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term performing address cluster that entered MOODENG on a large scale and quickly accumulated. The team maintained small purchases based on the main players' past trading methods and gradually followed up.
During trading, the main players test the market's buying and selling emotions through multiple rises and pullbacks while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. SaBiBro finds that after each pullback, the main players will accumulate again by monitoring the changes in the holding ratios of these main player addresses in real time. This phenomenon enhances the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.
Ultimately, MOODENG rose from a small market cap to hundreds of millions, and the team not only gained substantial profits but also validated the trading theory of 'following the main players' through this process.
How to seize the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market?
The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market significantly impact the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of funds varies at different times:
Mainstream coin rotation: funds may concentrate on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, at which point on-chain liquidity is scarce, and trading volume is low.
Emerging public chains and hotspot transitions: Ecological hotspots switch between public chains, such as the recent transfer from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.
Meme track and narrative shifts: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds also rotate due to updates on launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, from Solana's high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market capital is continuously shifting.
Using on-chain data tools like Dune, SaBiBro's team monitors on-chain trading volume and capital flow in real time to assist decision-making. For example, the recent capital rotation indicates that virtual economies on emerging chains (like AI Agents and Virtuals) have become hot spots, prompting the team to adjust positions in a timely manner to follow capital trends.
Why can calmness and discipline determine the success or failure of trading?
A bull market provides numerous opportunities but also comes with high risks. In such a market, maintaining calm and discipline is particularly important:
Independent judgment: SaBiBro emphasizes that trading should focus on validating strategies rather than conforming to market emotions. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily confuse traders with the narrative of an 'eternal bull market', leading to excessive optimism.
Timely profit-taking: A major pitfall in a bull market is 'reluctance to sell.' Even if the market is rising, taking partial profits is key to maintaining long-term advantages. Even if a higher price is missed, controlling risks always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.
Support for stable cash flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through main business or quantitative funds can reduce dependence on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.
In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which includes: fear of missing opportunities, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, SaBiBro also shared his coping methods:
Focus on trading framework: Trading outside the framework, even if profitable, is not considered successful. The core of trading is to validate strategies and refine cognition, rather than temporary profits.
Establish a calm communication environment: Avoid being disturbed by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overly enthusiastic emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.
Remember the cyclical nature of the market: SaBiBro points out that a bull market is not 'eternal' but a cycle filled with opportunities and risks. Even with strong bullish sentiment, one must remain alert to risks, especially when the market presents only a single narrative without clear supportive logic.
How to quickly improve cognitive level?
SaBiBro believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's circle. Communicating with high-cognition individuals can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with excellent people is an important way to improve oneself.
In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he seeks his own breakthrough points by constantly learning from the successful experiences and methods of others. The influence of communication with others is subtle. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his path. He advocates for 'upward socializing', discovering more possibilities through interactions with more outstanding individuals.
He also mentioned that 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' is a book that profoundly influences his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of 'making money work for oneself.' He pointed out that this book breaks the traditional education notion of 'stable jobs' and inspires him to explore entrepreneurship and investment possibilities.
In addition to books, his progress also benefits from other sources of knowledge. For example:
1. On-chain analysis of KOLs
Ai Yi @ai_9684xtpa: Focused on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
Mr. Mai @Michael_Liu93: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explaining the logic of main player behavior from another perspective.
2. Social media and communities: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capture market trends and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.
In addition, SaBiBro believes that the integration of cognitive understanding between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2 to explore how to replicate successful models in Web3. This cross-domain thinking keeps him ahead in exploring new tracks.
Summary and suggestions
Data-driven and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been validated as feasible in practice, but require ongoing dynamic adjustments. Additionally, whether it's the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of narrative tracks, sensitivity and adaptability must be maintained.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategies but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull or bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment can win long-term advantages.
Establish cognitive and cash flow pillars: With stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. By 'constantly learning' and 'upgrading circles', they keep themselves at the forefront of knowledge.
