Is the bull market over? How much longer will it last?
From the change in holdings, long-term players (blue line) are reducing their positions, mainly because their chips have increased by 4-5 times. Some smart money is starting to take profits, which aligns with bull market patterns. The chips being sold are being taken up by new investors entering the market, whose holdings are continuously increasing.
But this does not mean the bull market is over. Historically, bull market turnover usually lasts more than six months. Currently, the market has only moved halfway and has lasted for just 2 months, so there is approximately 4 months of upward space left. Based on Bitcoin’s historical trends, the monthly increase from January to April is around 10%, and the price could approach 140,000.
I will hold my long-term position until next year's Prague upgrade, at which point I will reassess market performance. The crypto market often sees rapid increases, and doubling can occur in just a few weeks, so I'm willing to wait patiently. Another wave of increase may come by the end of next year.
Ethereum has these three major advantages:
1. If Trump is elected president and implements favorable policies, it could bring new growth momentum to Ethereum.
2. The Trump administration may approve more Ethereum ETFs, especially those with staking yield functions, which will attract more funds.
3. The Trump family's decentralized financial project 'World Liberty Financial' has invested a significant amount of capital in the Ethereum ecosystem, purchasing ETH and core assets, providing strong 'soft' endorsement for the Ethereum ecosystem, further attracting capital attention.
FTT's revival rumors
$FTT once reached 85 USD, was still at 22 USD before the collapse, but now only 3.5 USD remains, with very low circulation. If FTX restarts soon, FTT may see speculative opportunities. Therefore, understanding the distribution of FTT chips is crucial.
Currently, the total amount of FTT is 328 million coins, but most are locked:
FTX Treasury: 195 million coins
FTX Exchange: 45.85 million coins
Other addresses related to FTX (bankruptcy asset collection points, Alameda Research, BitDAO, etc.): approximately 270 million coins in total. These chips are largely immobile due to legal or protocol restrictions.
Approximately 58 million circulating chips remain, with exchanges holding the majority:
Binance: 38 million coins
Other exchanges: around 8 million coins
Last week FTT surged fivefold. Normally, a significant increase would prompt more users to transfer FTT to exchanges. However, in the past 7 days, Binance received only 3.46 million new chips, a tiny percentage of holdings, and some may have been transferred from other exchanges. On-chain data also shows some large holders transferring chips among themselves.
Summary: The circulation of FTT is very limited, and the truly market-operable chips are scarce. Once rumors of a restart heat up, it may trigger greater speculative volatility in the short term.
BNB new coin opportunity!
$Poodle has officially launched! The meme coin culture of the Binance chain is leading a new trend!
The VIP Dog, symbolizing elegance and nobility, #Poodle will become a new benchmark in the crypto world.
Opening time: December 29, 21:00
Contract address: 0x60B024586ef8baA4143A71740215065B57202111
Total issuance: 21 million coins
Only 4 days left until $BIO goes live on Binance. How high can its market cap rise?
Barring any surprises, @bioprotocol is expected to become the leader in the DeSci track after launch. Therefore, the market cap performance of $BIO at launch will be crucial, as it represents the current market cap ceiling of the DeSci track.
However, a few points still need attention:
1. The circulation ratio is relatively high, reaching 39.05%;
2. Early community auction participants (including myself) had a low cost, with 12.57% of tokens released at TGE, which may bring some selling pressure.
Historically, investing in new coins through BNB typically does not result in losses. If this trend continues, the price of $BIO could reach at least 1.364. The project still has a few days of mining opportunities, so if you have idle funds, you can continue mining to seize the opportunity!
I got on board ZEN during the correction, even though I made a 10% profit by selling after the last peak.
In the long term, the backing of Grayscale Fund makes $ZEN promising, as it has gained recognition from major institutions. Currently, its market cap is less than 500 million USD, making it the lowest valued coin in the Grayscale Fund. ZEN also plans to launch a zk chain, which still has significant growth potential compared to ZKS's 4 billion market cap, even though ZKS has not yet fully unlocked.
In the short term, the daily ZEN adjustment is nearing completion, so I am considering establishing a bottom position.
That’s all for today's article. We are currently in a bull market, and the winds are stirring. We share passwords daily. If you don’t know how to operate in a bull market, feel free to follow us. Bull market spot passwords and layout strategies can be shared for free.
