Since Trump won the election two months ago, it feels like time has passed very slowly. Now entering 2025, prices have risen significantly compared to not long ago, but fortunately, there is new hope. With the U.S. taking the lead in formulating cryptocurrency-friendly policies and regulatory measures, we are expected to welcome a new world supportive of cryptocurrencies.
Given the local peak we experienced in December, I believe the bull market will continue in a similar manner, with some assets performing excellently while others lag behind.
For the next quarter, I believe the mainstream asset that will benefit the most is Ethereum ($ETH), mainly for the following three reasons:
Firstly, the 10 IQ price fractal—Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 40% compared to its previous historical high, while Ethereum (ETH) is still 30% lower than its previous historical high. Although this doesn't explain too much, both of these assets have exchange-traded fund (ETF) products, and to the general public, it is easy to believe that Ethereum is cheaper than Bitcoin (thus having more room for growth).
Second, Trump's supportive governance measures for cryptocurrency—this has always been most favorable for utility-based/smart contract-related assets. We have already seen some decentralized finance (DeFi) assets (such as AAVE, UNI) perform exceptionally well due to expectations of this situation, but the asset that has undoubtedly benefited the most is Ethereum. Trump's working group (WLF) has not taken any action regarding Solana but has been paying attention to Ethereum-based assets, and I believe this situation will continue.
Thirdly, the development of the Base ecosystem—in all of Ethereum's Layer 2 networks (L2s), Base is the most outstanding chain this year. With Coinbase's native distribution channels and the naturally developing AI agent metaverse led by virtual avatars, Base offers a value proposition very similar to Solana, undoubtedly making it a competitor. This creates natural demand for Ethereum as a foundational asset (since Base itself does not have its own token), and as ecosystem activities increase, it will bring positive capital inflows.
I expect Ethereum to break $4000 as early as January, and it may move towards its historical high at some point in the first quarter.
I believe the following three areas will continue to perform well:
First, the field of artificial intelligence agents;
Second, cryptocurrencies that can generate utility fees;
Third, cryptocurrencies that are expected to launch ETFs.
I feel that these views are not contrarian in any way, and I believe that now is not the time to stand out or sing a different tune; there will be opportunities in the future.
Regarding when this cycle will peak, I speculate that most of 2025 will resemble 2023 or 2024, with localized revaluation increases followed by large-scale bull-bear battles and price fluctuations. Ultimately, one of these rallies will become the global peak, but I feel we are far from that time now.
