Has the bull market already ended?
No, it hasn't. Based on past experience, bull markets typically last for more than six months with significant turnover, and right now we can only say that the market has moved halfway. It has only been bullish for 2 months, and there are still about 4 months of bullishness to come. This aligns with the historical pattern of Bitcoin, where it doesn't rise much in December, but from January to April, it averages a 10% increase each month, reaching around 140,000. This is a rational expectation. As for my long-term position, at the very least, I will hold until next year's Prague upgrade, and we'll see what happens then. Because even though the crypto market seems hesitant now, once it starts to rise, doubling can happen in just a few weeks, so patience is key. Looking back at the market, the weekend hasn't deviated much from expectations; it has been oscillating within the range of 94,000 to 96,000, and since yesterday, it has mostly been suggesting a low buy layout. I've essentially captured all of it, and whenever there's an opportunity, I've made it clear when and at what levels to buy. If you missed out, you can only blame yourself!
From the current structure, after a series of upward candles, a downward movement has appeared. Such a slow rising pattern will not be reversed by the appearance of one downward candle. The downward candle is merely a small episode, serving a corrective function to the previous strong uptrend, but correction does not mean reversal. After the correction, we still see bullish potential. Furthermore, correction creates space for better upward movement, allowing bulls to accumulate energy for a new push. From a four-hour perspective, the upper band serves as short-term resistance and is quite strong and effective. This upward trend is showing a pattern of continuous oscillation and rise; after each upward surge, there will be corresponding adjustments, running in a stepwise manner, ultimately building a support platform for the next stage of upward movement. Currently, the price has undergone oscillation between 94,000 and 96,000 and has tested the lower levels, completing the rise of this stage. Now, the rise of the next stage is brewing.
