Polymarket predicts that the probability of President Trump approving a strategic Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office has fallen to 27%, down from a high of 60% following his election. Currently, the betting amount for this event has exceeded $1.5 million. Meanwhile, other prediction markets anticipate that Trump will eventually accept Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, joining oil and gold. For instance, Kalshi predicted that the probability of a Bitcoin reserve occurrence by January 2026 reached as high as 61%, the highest since December 21, but has currently fallen to 57%. Additionally, users on Polymarket and Kalshi expect that it will take some time for Texas to pass the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill. Polymarket predicts the likelihood of Texas passing the bill before March next year is 10%, while the probability on Kalshi is 24%.

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