Summary of current context:
• Trading volume and market interest: Market participants, both bulls and bears, are showing passivity, despite the decline in selling volume. This shows a lack of momentum from both sides and increases the possibility of a deeper correction.
• Important support and resistance:
• Support: $92,109 and long term at $65,000.
• Resistance: $95,767 (50-day SMA) and $93,211 (50-day EMA).
• RSI indicator: Currently declining, signaling the possibility of a continued downtrend.
Potential scenario:
1. Bullish scenario:
• Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance level of $93,211 - $95,767 to trigger a breakout from the descending triangle pattern.
• If it exceeds $100K in the short term, it could trigger a strong upward trend by 2025.
2. Bearish scenario:
• If BTC drops below $92,200, long-term support at $71,000 - $81,000 may be tested.
• In the event of increased selling pressure, lower support around $65,000 could become the next target.
3. Long-term opportunity:
• The $80,000 - $85,000 range is considered a good buy zone, creating long-term upward potential.
Short-term prediction:
• With the current situation, if BTC does not recover above key support levels in the coming days, the likelihood of losing 10-12% of its value before the end of the year is very high.
• A sharp drop of 20% will only occur if selling pressure significantly increases, especially if BTC breaks the $92,200 support.
Conclusion:
Investors need to closely monitor support and resistance levels in the last week of the year, especially around $92,200. Making buy or sell decisions should be carefully considered based on market recovery or breakout signals.