According to Polymarket’s latest betting activity, participants are showing a modest 30% confidence in bitcoin (BTC) reaching the $100,000 mark by the end of the year. However, in a twist, another wager on the platform indicates a 21% belief that bitcoin could leap to $150,000 by March 31, 2025.
Bitcoin’s Future Price Under the Microscope
On Friday, Dec. 27, Polymarket hosted a high-stakes wager pulling in $2,517,135 in volume, set to wrap up on Dec. 31, 2024. The bet suggests only a 30% likelihood that bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 again this year.
As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday, bitcoin is holding steady at $94,400, following its record-breaking peak of $108,364 on Dec. 17. The bet’s rules outline:
“This market will immediately resolve to ‘Yes’ if any Binance 1 minute candle for bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 23, 2024, 14:50 and December 31, 2024, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final ‘High’ price of $100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.’”
Polymarket bettors are also placing their bets on where bitcoin’s price will land by March 31, 2025. The price options range from $70,000 to $200,000, including milestones like $90,000, $110,000, and $120,000—three of the most favored picks.
The $90,000 prediction leads with an 85% chance, followed by $110,000 at 64%. Meanwhile, $120,000 holds at 45%, and $130,000 sits with a 34% likelihood.
Looking higher up the scale, the $150,000 wager stands at 21%, while the $200,000 target is hanging on at just 9%. The gap between betting odds for the near-term $100,000 goal and the lofty $150,000 aim for early 2025 indicates that while quick profits might be restrained, long-term optimism thrives.
This setup sketches a scene of a market where, even with possible short-term swings, some see it as ready for a big leap forward. Both investors and market observers are sure to keep a keen eye on betting markets for clues on what’s coming next.
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