In the daily candlestick pattern of Bitcoin, it has currently retraced to near the blue 60-day moving average, while trading volume is gradually shrinking, showing a state of volume reduction adjustment.
The yellow 20-day moving average has been breached, but the blue 60-day moving average, as a more important medium-term trend support, has shown strong support strength. Historically, the 60-day moving average is usually an important retracement bottom point for prices, and the current candlestick has tested this moving average multiple times without effectively breaking below it, indicating that this moving average has a certain degree of support effectiveness.
If the price can consistently stabilize above the 60-day moving average, the probability of Bitcoin forming a phase bottom at this position is relatively high, and it may even usher in a rebound.
From the perspective of trading volume, as the price adjusts to near the 60-day moving average, the selling pressure in the market has obviously weakened (the volume bars are gradually shortening), indicating that the market has entered a wait-and-see state and the willingness to sell is declining.
The yellow and white lines have been continuously converging below the zero axis, and the green bars are gradually shortening, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening.
If the subsequent MACD yellow and white lines can form a 'golden cross' and approach the zero axis, market sentiment may experience a turnaround.
The current RSI value is approximately 44, close to the oversold range but not fully entered. This indicates that while the market is weak, the downward momentum is limited, and it may consolidate and build a bottom in the current range.
Risks and Opportunities
Combining the support of the 60-day moving average, the reduction in trading volume, and the gradual convergence of MACD, Bitcoin is currently at a critical position. From an operational perspective:
If the subsequent candlesticks can continue to oscillate above the 60-day moving average, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, this may attract more bullish funds into the market and warm up market sentiment.
Conversely, if it breaks below the EMA 60-day moving average, attention should be paid to the position of the purple 120-day moving average as the next key support.
Strategy Suggestions
The current market sentiment is weak, but the technical aspects show that the downward momentum has significantly weakened, making it suitable to focus on the following strategies:
Short-term strategy: You can gradually build a light position near the 60-day moving average, with stop-loss set below the 60-day moving average (around 91300), and the target price is the 20-day moving average (around 97500).
Medium-term strategy: If it can stabilize and break through the EMA 20-day moving average subsequently, there is an opportunity to further look towards the $100,000 mark.
--- Above is my speculation on Bitcoin$BTC weekend market, thank you for your likes, thank you for your company, I am Oupeng, remember to give a three-click support ❤️!
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