ChainCatcher news, a weekly report released by Matrixport shows that there are multiple potential threats that could derail the current Bitcoin bull run. One notable concern comes from BlackRock, which said there is "no guarantee" that Bitcoin's 21 million-coin supply cap will remain in place due to the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin protocol. In addition, new developments such as Google’s announcement of its 105-qubit “Willow” quantum chip have also fueled discussions about potential long-term threats to Bitcoin’s security.
Fed members recently raised their inflation expectations. The change is more political than anything else. Specifically, concerns about Trump's potential tariffs, which economists widely view as inflationary, appear to have influenced their expectations. However, during Trump's first term, those tariffs had little impact on inflation. This suggests that the Fed's inflation expectations may not be fully aligned with current economic realities, which could create room for flexibility in setting policy in the coming year.
According to Matrixport's model, inflation will not be a major issue next year, which may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance. However, based on past experience, Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak when regulatory pressure reaches a critical point. As most of the regulatory uncertainties seem to be resolved, the risk of this Bitcoin bull market ending may depend on other factors.
While the abandonment of near-zero interest rates in December 2021 was a significant change, recently, the Federal Reserve has indicated its intention to cut rates for over a year before implementing its first rate cut in September 2024. This situation introduces new uncertainties for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as the Federal Reserve's response to potential fiscal policies from Trump may impact the trajectory of monetary policy.
