Deep Tide TechFlow News, on December 27, a weekly report released by Matrixport showed that there are multiple potential threats that may derail the current Bitcoin bull market. One notable concern comes from BlackRock, which said there is "no guarantee" that Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap will remain unchanged due to the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin protocol. This statement has sparked discussion, but should be viewed in context. In addition, new developments such as Google’s announcement of its “Willow” quantum chip with 105 qubits have also triggered discussions about potential long-term threats to Bitcoin’s security.
Federal Reserve members have recently raised their inflation expectations. This change is largely driven by political considerations. Specifically, concerns about potential tariffs imposed by Trump (which economists generally believe to be inflationary) seem to have influenced their expectations. However, during Trump's first term, the impact of these tariffs on inflation was minimal. This suggests that the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations may not fully align with current economic realities, potentially creating room for flexibility when formulating policies in the coming year.
According to Matrixport's model, inflation is not expected to be a major issue next year, which may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance.
However, based on past experience, Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak when regulatory pressures reach a critical point. With most of the outstanding regulatory issues seemingly resolved, the risk of this Bitcoin bull market ending may depend on other factors.
While abandoning near-zero interest rates in December 2021 was a significant change, recently, the Federal Reserve has indicated intentions to cut rates for over a year before implementing its first rate cut in September 2024. This situation introduces new uncertainties for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as the Federal Reserve's response to Trump's potential fiscal policies could influence the trajectory of monetary policy.
