Squid Game Season 2 has launched, and all day yesterday revolved around this IP in PVP. The DALMATIAN that emerged reached a maximum FDV of 13M, but this kind of meme has no lasting habit, so any position earned is reasonable to exit.
The altcoins are mixed in their performance, with platform tokens still shining the brightest in CEX. The explosive rise of BGB directly boosted the market for GT CKB, but BGB's price manipulation is evident, and the FDV is severely overestimated, so we can't continue pushing at this time.
The market has returned to a state where CEX loses and DEX earns; I hope everyone can grasp their own 'profitable' track, follow a simple model, and not forcefully challenge their 'abilities.'
BTC is oscillating, fluctuating between 95,000 and 100,000 weekly. The weekend is approaching again, with 4-hour levels showing back-and-forth movement. Short-term support around 92,000 is crucial; if this position is lost, a longer period of oscillation and adjustment will follow. Currently, the short-term trend appears to be primarily oscillating and adjusting.
I still maintain the view that the altcoin season will come; what kind of altcoin season do I expect?
In fact, Bitcoin has not led to a true altcoin season since it surged from 57,000 or 67,000 to 110,000.
The altcoin season must have a leader! ETH leads a group of altcoin brothers in a collective surge.
XRP is not performing, DOGE is not performing, and BGB, HYPER are even worse; they are all individual cases and lack leadership attributes. The altcoin season requires collective uprising; it needs various big brothers to lead their younger brothers in mutual uprisings.
Regarding the ETH chart below: it can only be considered oscillating for now. It has yet to break out of this large box; only Bitcoin pulling itself up does not constitute a bull market in the crypto space.
Yesterday's downward push was not surprising but expected; it was necessary to drop. Switching to the daily chart of ETH, the rebound that started on the 23rd has no volume. On the 23rd, 24th, and 25th, it crawled upward a bit, but the volume decreased. At this point, it might be better to drop and test the situation below.
Yesterday's drop had no volume. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are the same; retail investors have already laid flat.
Technically, ETH is just at the support level, around 3360. If it holds here, then ETH will form an ascending triangle.
Why is it dropping?
Essentially, there is still pressure above that cannot be overcome, with BTC at 100,000 and ETH at 3,540. After several attempts, there is still pressure. If it can't go up, it will wash down.
Under the condition that the basic logic remains unchanged, as long as the original bottom is not broken, it is still mainly about cleaning up chips. Declines are unpleasant, but they are a necessary process. Even if it doesn't drop, ETH's lack of volume increase is still of no use. For a rapid surge, we must wait for it to gain volume.
The next period is critical; whether we can accelerate depends on these few days. Will it accelerate? Or will it continue to oscillate?
In a situation where everyone is laid flat and chips can't be cleaned out, I believe now is a good window for acceleration; we can try to increase volume and accelerate upward.
Next, we will observe whether the market can increase volume and rise. The importance of volume is greater than the increase in price; continuous small-scale volume can represent the determination and willpower of the market makers.
Those with spot holdings should lay flat; if you've already topped out, don't chase now. The current market is very strange, and any misstep could lead to being trapped.
This entire market cycle can be divided into three phases.
The first phase is from the end of 2022 to October 2023: The market in this phase still follows the original crypto circle's path, which is very conventional and we are quite accustomed to.
Market differentiation began in the second phase, from October 2023 to October 2024: In the later part of this phase, Bitcoin and altcoins show differentiation; Bitcoin shows a slow bull market pattern with horizontal movements instead of drops, which is very strong; while altcoins enter a deep bear market during Bitcoin's long bull cycle.
We are now in the third phase, starting from October 2024: Bitcoin continues its own bull market; however, I believe we have now entered the initial stage of an altcoin bull market. The first segment isn't that strong, only a few are vigorous, followed by a retracement, and then a significant wave for altcoins.
My strategy: Use the profits (retracement) from Bitcoin to give altcoins a chance and wait for the altcoin leaders to rise!
Currently, the market is still holding onto coins. The decline is limited, while the rise is unlimited. The days of holding coins are quite painful, which is why the saying 'holding coins is like guarding a widow' exists. However, only by holding on can one see the clouds disperse and the moon shine!
Market makers will only pull up when most people have exited; it depends on whether you are a pace runner or the ultimate victor!