When the BTC price retraced below $100,000 on 12/8, the color changed from green to red, indicating an increase in supply. This suggests that a large amount of bottom-fishing activity occurred at that time. The chips that entered during this period did not significantly decrease even after the rebound on 12/16 and the subsequent drop on 12/23, with costs roughly between $97,000 and $100,000, forming effective support.
Additionally, the chips bought at the low of $96,000 on 12/10 were sold when the price rebounded to $105,000 on 12/16, which is why we see the color change from red to green (label 1); however, when the price retraced again to around $96,000 on 12/21, there was again buying activity. This group likely consists of traders looking for short-term swings and has been the primary group involved in recent on-chain turnover (STH).
There are also many chips trapped at higher levels between $100,000 and $102,000, but they appear to be relatively steadfast, and currently, there is no significant decrease observed. Market sentiment is gradually calming down, and liquidity is decreasing. However, the chip structure is still in a 'healthy' state, with effective price support formed in the $92,000 to $100,000 range. As time goes on, the more turnover there is, the stronger the support will be (determining the lower limit). Whether new highs can be achieved or if the trend can be reversed will depend on the impact of macro policies on market expectations after January 2025.
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