As BeInCrypto reported earlier, former FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has attracted much attention for his early release from prison.

However, tweets from Musk and others indicate that this is very likely.

So, what are the chances that the FTX founder will be out of prison less than a year after his conviction?

In 2020, at the height of FTX’s career, Sam Bankman-Fried donated $5.2 million to a pro-Biden super PAC. He is the second-largest individual donor to the Democratic Party after Michael Bloomberg.

Historically, political donors and their affiliates have had a huge advantage themselves when it comes to convictions and pardons.

For example, Marc Rich, the 'notorious' oil trader, evaded at least $50 million in taxes as early as 2021. However, Rich received a pardon on the last day of Clinton's term.

The controversy surrounding the pardon stems from the fact that Rich's ex-wife, Denise, is a major donor to the Democratic Party. She made substantial donations to Clinton's presidential library and the Democratic National Committee.

Similarly, Paul Pogue is another convicted tax fraudster who was pardoned by Trump in 2020.

Reports indicate that this is because Pogue's family donated over $200,000 to Trump's campaign.

Prediction market platform Kalshi posted on X: 'Sam Bankman-Fried used millions in stolen customer funds to finance political activities.'

'SBF donated almost all his funds to the Democratic Party (98%), making him the second-largest donor to the Democrats; now the likelihood of Biden pardoning him is 12%.'

Given the historical cases where political donors are more likely to receive leniency, the controversy over the potential pardon of Sam Bankman-Fried by Biden is also understandable.

Additionally, Biden pardoned Michael Conahan last week.

Conahan was sentenced to 17 years in prison for a scandal involving 'exchanging children for money.' He accepted bribes from private juvenile detention centers, often sending children to these centers under the pretext of minor offenses.

This is a specific indication that Biden may not shy away from pardoning major offenders.

One of the most controversial points in Bankman-Fried's trial was the government's omission of charges related to campaign financing.

Initially, Bankman-Fried faced eight criminal charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States and violations of campaign finance laws.

However, this campaign finance charge was dropped in July 2023.

Initially, Bankman-Fried's charges were dropped due to a treaty obligation with the Bahamas. Essentially, the Bahamian government did not approve of including this particular charge in the extradition request.

Nonetheless, the prosecution claims it will conduct a separate trial for these charges.

The purpose of the second trial is to address the revoked campaign finance allegations, as well as some allegations related to bribery and unlicensed remittance operations.

However, in December 2023, prosecutors announced that they would not proceed with a second trial, as the evidence for the second trial would largely replicate what had already been presented in the first trial.

Earlier this year, Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for multiple counts of wire fraud and other charges.

However, given the scale and impact of his crimes, many believe the sentencing is too lenient.

The collapse of FTX resulted in losses of over $16 billion for customers and creditors, and the crypto asset winter has led to losses exceeding $100 billion in the market. Therefore, as one of the largest financial scandals in U.S. history, many believe this sentencing is lenient.

Renowned lawyer Richard W. Painter wrote, 'Sam Bankman-Fried and his associates hope to receive pardons or reduced sentences in exchange for the campaign donations they stole from FTX investors. Any president who agrees to do so should be impeached for bribery.'

Prosecutors initially sought a 50-year prison sentence, considering Sam Bankman-Fried's crimes to be 'historic' in scope and severity.

Prosecutors emphasized the significant financial losses suffered by FTX customers and the public's diminished trust in the crypto asset market.

Furthermore, Caroline Ellison, who actively collected customer funds from FTX and Bankman-Fried, was sentenced to only 2 years in prison due to her cooperation with prosecutors.

Most surprisingly, Gary Wang, the author of the backdoor code that provided unlimited credit to Alameda, completely avoided prison.

Given these facts, and the critics' belief that the sentencing is too lenient, the crypto asset industry clearly anticipates that Sam Bankman-Fried may receive leniency.

However, it is important to note that the connection between donations and pardons is not always consistent.

The president may approve a pardon for other reasons, and it is difficult to definitively prove that donations are the sole or primary motivating factor.

But it is certain that the existence of wealthy individuals escaping legal troubles through political donations will inevitably raise moral concerns.