The downward trend intensifies, market confidence shakes.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has dropped by 4%, briefly falling to the $95,200 level. In just a few days, it has slid from around $100,000, and investors are worried about a potentially larger decline ahead. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin's total market cap remains around $1.89 trillion, but a trading volume of $4.47 billion is unable to stop the bearish sentiment in the market. (As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is $95,774.)
Image source: CoinGecko Bitcoin price trend chart
A series of negative news has made market sentiment more pessimistic. Although Bitcoin has risen by three digits since the beginning of the year, many well-known analysts believe that in the short term, Bitcoin may risk returning to $70,000 or even $60,000. Continuous selling pressure and a strong dollar have significantly limited the bulls' momentum.
Key analysts: Target price opinions vary.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt observed the appearance of a 'broadening triangle' pattern in Bitcoin's daily chart, indicating increased market volatility but uncertain direction. If it breaks downward, it could point straight to $70,000. Tone Vays identified $95,000 as crucial for Bitcoin; falling below this point, the technical outlook is 'very bad', increasing the retracement risk to $73,000.
Another analyst, Ali Martinez, focuses on on-chain data, emphasizing that $97,041 and $93,806 are key short-term support levels for Bitcoin. Once breached, it may face a crisis dropping to $60,000.
Image source: X Ali Martinez believes that if Bitcoin fails, it may face a crisis plunging to $60,000.
It is worth noting that over 33,000 Bitcoins (worth over $3 billion) have flowed into exchanges in the past week; such large movements often symbolize significant selling pressure, which is unfavorable for price increases.
Image source: Ali Martinez. Over 33,000 Bitcoins have flowed into exchanges in the past week.
Downtrend or reversal? Market divergence is severe.
From this month's peak of 108,000 to the current 95,000 range, Bitcoin has evaporated about 12% of its value, forming a pattern of continuously breaking important support levels. From a technical perspective, analysts generally believe that if it continues to weaken, 80,000 or even 70,000 could be the next potential retracement points. However, some bulls still hold hope, believing that as long as it can return above 100,000 and stabilize, there is still a chance to continue this year's strong upward trend.
It is noteworthy that there are also voices in the market claiming 'the bull market is not over yet'. Crypto derivative trading is active, and large institutions and publicly traded companies (like MicroStrategy) are still actively purchasing Bitcoin, with a long queue of ETF applications. Due to unpredictable macroeconomic and political factors, a reversal in the market may occur in the second half of the year or early next year.
Is the bull market over or just building momentum?
Currently, the market's focus is on whether Bitcoin can hold the key range. If it continues to break multiple supports, investors may have to face the regret of 'having long overdue profit-taking', which will also affect the flow of funds in altcoins and the DeFi industry. However, some believe that historical experience shows that Bitcoin's corrections after a significant rise do not mean the end of a bull market, but rather a healthy adjustment; new investors and institutional buyers may re-enter around 70,000.
Although analysts generally believe there is a real risk in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, many bulls still believe Bitcoin is fundamentally positive in the long term. With the intertwining dynamics of international politics, central bank policies, and the cryptocurrency industry, the ongoing game of 'bearish vs. bullish' continues. Investors need to closely monitor price and on-chain indicator trends, as well as the possibility of a renewed profit-taking wave. Whether Bitcoin is truly facing 'the winter is coming' or just a brief adjustment before the next surge remains a question waiting for an answer.
Further reading
Glassnode report: Bitcoin long-term holders cash out $2.1 billion! Has the bull market ended before it even started?
Warning of large volatility! Bitcoin $14 billion options are expiring, will the market crash?
Bitcoin ETF has bled for three consecutive days! Analysts warn it may continue to fall, with the next target being 'this level'?
'Is this year's market already over? Bitcoin's winter is coming, analysts warn: it may drop back to $60,000!' This article was first published in 'Crypto City'.
