In today's era, artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly advanced, starting to replace more and more jobs. Trading is no exception; from the original fundamental analysis to technical analysis, and now to quantitative analysis. Recently, there have been news reports about the domestic A-share market, where many retail investors have been harvested by quantitative trading; many trading institutions on Wall Street are also spending heavily to develop quantitative trading. So how should we, as ordinary traders, choose?
Technical analysis: It's easy to learn; you can develop good technical analysis skills in a few months to a year or two and become a so-called 'analyst'. You will no longer be confused about market trends; you will clearly understand whether it is rising or falling. However, you are still far from stable profits. Trading carries risks; if your trading system leads to ten consecutive losses, will you still steadfastly execute it? When you have ten consecutive profits, will you make trades outside your trading system, trades that you are not very good at but feel might be profitable? Candlestick patterns are not complicated, but the complexities of human nature make trading very difficult. Technical analysis traders without good psychological qualities are doomed to fail; those with good psychological qualities can achieve twice the result with half the effort, even without excellent technical skills.
When it comes to the psychological issues of technical analysis, some people might think of quantitative trading.
Quantitative trading: It seems that when we backtest this system 10,000 times, if it is profitable or significantly profitable, you may find it very useful, and so you start to execute this program. However, quantitative trading always comes with significant drawdowns in the profit curve; when you open your account and see such a profit curve, will you still execute this system? If your quantitative trading only brings you a 10% return in six months, will you continue to use it?
It seems we have returned to psychological issues, which accompany the entire process of trading and accompany us throughout our lives. Personality determines destiny; with a good mindset, you will view everything in life with a better attitude. Trading will also become simpler.#交易认知 #交易哲学 #“圣诞老人行情”再现