The six members of the Federal Reserve have recently stated that the current interest rates for Americans are close to the neutral rate, which means there will be a rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points afterward. However, another eight members believe the rates should be lower than they currently are, specifically at 3% or below, indicating a higher probability of further rate cuts. Therefore, the previous concern about the anxiety of not cutting rates next year, as mentioned by Orange, is completely unnecessary until something actually happens. Everything in the macro environment has traces to follow before it truly materializes.
In trading, 80% of the time belongs to dead time, during which 95% of speculators will be washed out of the market, and less than 1% of trading geniuses will emerge. Therefore, everyone needs to position themselves reasonably; if you don’t want to be washed out and can’t become a genius, then be that inconspicuous ostrich, waiting for the right moment to act when the trend arrives.