On December 25, Bitcoin (BTC) hinted at a possible “Santa Claus rally” as its price attempted to reclaim the $100,000 mark. However, the rally faltered, falling short of the target. This failure of Bitcoin’s recovery has left short-term holders wondering about the possibility of a recovery in the near term.
Will the cryptocurrency price continue to trade under six figures?
Bitcoin sentiment is bearish.
Bitcoin’s failure to recover to $100,000 pushed its price below $97,000 and negatively impacted its market dominance. But the negative sentiment doesn’t stop there.
According to IntoTheBlock, the Addresses by Time Held Index, which tracks activity among Bitcoin holders who have held the cryptocurrency between 30 and 365 days, has shown a significant decline over the past week.
This group, often referred to as short-term holders, plays a crucial role in reflecting market sentiment. An increase in this category typically indicates growing optimism, but the recent decline suggests a decline in confidence among these investors.
If this trend continues, it could indicate continued downward pressure on Bitcoin's value in the near term.
Another indicator that reinforces this sentiment is the net unrealized gain/loss of short-term holders (STH-NUPL). The STH-NUPL measures the behavior of investors who have held a coin for less than 155 days.
With this data, one can tell whether short-term Bitcoin holders are bullish, fearful, or greedy. According to Glassnode, the gauge has dropped into the hopeful or fearful (orange) zone, indicating that investors are skeptical about a major BTC rally. If this remains the case, BTC may struggle to attract enough demand to push the price higher.
BTC Price Prediction: Below $90,000 Next?
Bitcoin price faced resistance at $99,332. This barrier was one of the reasons why the cryptocurrency failed to rally towards $108,398. With this pullback, Bitcoin’s rebound is likely to continue failing in the short term.
Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral level of 50.00. This decline indicates that the momentum around BTC has turned bearish. If this situation continues, the coin is at risk of falling to $85,851.
However, if the bulls help BTC break the resistance above $99,332, the trend may change. In this scenario, Bitcoin price may approach $110,000.