[ $BTC #比特幣多頭回籠了 ! Derivative data suggest a rebound to $105,000 ]
Since Bitcoin hit a low of $92,458 on December 23, it has surged 6.5%, but has been unable to break through the resistance level of $98,000. However, traders have clearly shown confidence, as Bitcoin experienced a 14.5% pullback after reaching its all-time high of $108,275 on December 17.
Bitcoin derivatives maintain a neutral to bullish stance, indicating that sharp price fluctuations have not significantly impacted market sentiment. This supports the possibility of Bitcoin's price continuing to rebound above $105,000.
The current trading price of Bitcoin futures monthly contracts is about 12% higher than the general spot market. This indicates strong demand for leveraged long positions. Generally, a premium of 5% to 10% is considered neutral, as sellers take into account factors related to extended settlement periods when setting prices.
Bitcoin put options are trading at a 2% discount compared to regular call options, consistent with trends over the past two weeks. When whales and market makers anticipate a potential pullback, this indicator typically carries a 6% premium, reflecting the premium of put options.
Recently, traditional financial markets have rebounded, with the S&P 500 index recovering its losses for the month on the 24th, driving Bitcoin's price back above $98,000, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.59%, higher than the 4.23% two weeks ago, indicating that investors demand higher returns when holding U.S. Treasuries.
The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields typically reflects market expectations of rising inflation or increasing government debt, which dilutes the value of currently held bonds. In contrast, when central banks are forced to inject liquidity to stimulate the economy, scarce assets like stocks and Bitcoin usually perform well.
Amid economic uncertainty, Bitcoin faces concerns of stagnation.
However, Bitcoin's upside potential remains limited, as investors are concerned about the risk of global economic stagnation. In this case, it is difficult to predict the overall impact on stock markets and real estate assets. Currently, Bitcoin has a high correlation with the S&P 500 index, reaching 64%.
The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rate cut expectations, now indicating that there will only be two cuts in 2025, down from the previous expectation of four. This adjustment reduces short-term risks of corporate profit declines and potential issues in real estate financing.
To assess market sentiment, it is necessary to analyze Bitcoin's margin market. Unlike derivative contracts, the margin market allows traders to borrow stablecoins, buy spot Bitcoin, or borrow Bitcoin to establish short positions, thereby betting on price declines.
OKX's Bitcoin long-short margin ratio is currently 25 times, favorable for long positions. Historically, excessive confidence leads to this ratio exceeding 40 times, while levels below 5 times are usually seen as bearish.
Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets show bullish momentum, despite record outflows from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on December 24. Additionally, after Bitcoin retraced to $92,458 on the 23rd, it has now rebounded, demonstrating resilience, which strengthens market optimism that Bitcoin may rise above $105,000.
Analysts predict: Ethereum will challenge $4,000, while Bitcoin may rise above $105,000.
Analysts express optimism about the future price trends of Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin, citing factors such as increased institutional interest, growth in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, anticipated impacts from Ethereum 2.0, and broader market adoption.
It is expected that the price of Ethereum will experience significant growth. Predictions indicate that once ETH breaks through the psychological barrier of $3,500, it may gain further upward momentum, challenging the $4,000 level within the year. For long-term investors, the upward trajectory of Ethereum's price, supported by market fundamentals, may yield substantial returns as it approaches $5,000 in the first quarter of 2025.
