I will analyze the technical of $BTC based on the provided data:
1. Momentum and Volume Analysis:
- Trading volume has been gradually decreasing in the last 4 hours, from an average of 12-15K to 5-7K transactions/30min
- The Buy/Sell volume ratio is fairly balanced, fluctuating around 45-55%
- RSI(6,12,24) is in the neutral zone of 40-60, showing no signs of overbought/sold
- MACD is in a slight downtrend, with a negative histogram indicating short-term selling pressure
2. Technical Analysis:
- The price is fluctuating in the sideways channel of 95,300-95,700 in the last 4 hours
- MA20, MA50 are converging around the area of 95,500-95,700
- Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with decreasing volatility
- CMF20 and MFI14 indicate balanced money flow in/out
- OBV shows no clear trend
3. Scenarios and Probabilities in the next 4-24 hours:
Scenario 1 (60% chance):
- Price continues to move sideways within a range of +-2% around 95,500
- Confirmation signs: Low volume, BB continues to narrow
- Take profit: 97,200 (+2%)
- Stop loss: 93,800 (-2%)
Scenario 2 (40% chance):
- Breakout down to the range of 93,000-94,000 (-2 to -3%)
- Confirmation signs: Sudden increase in volume, MACD crosses below
- Strong support: 93,000
4. Recommendations:
- NOT RECOMMENDED TO LONG/SHORT at this time due to:
+ Low volatility, lack of catalysts
+ Neutral RSI
+ Weak volume
+ Unattractive Risk/Reward
- Potential entry points:
+ Long when price tests 93,000-94,000 with response
+ Short when breaking down to 95,000 with strong increasing volume
Need to monitor further:
- Changes in trading volume
- Break from the current sideways channel
- Volatility of momentum indicators RSI, MACD