$BTC

Good evening, friends. I finished my broadcast at 7 AM and woke up at 2 PM to a bunch of message replies. Fortunately, I managed to handle them all. The US stock market is closed these days, so let's share some insights and opinions.

Looking back at the market trend, before the US market opened yesterday, we saw a surge from 950 directly to 994, a one-sided increase with a fluctuation of 4000 points, and there were no pullback actions. To be honest, I didn't anticipate this trend either; it might be due to my limited capability, which has led me to still be caught in it.

From the trend perspective, after the pullback from 994 to 972 in the early morning, there was a second surge around 990, followed by a second pullback to 976, and then it surged again to 993, followed by a quick short-term pullback to 975, breaking the earlier low.

Here, there are several issues to consider. After raising the price and pulling back, the next surge must break the previous high, and the pullback cannot break the low; only then can we say there is a trend reversal or a bullish confirmation.

However, the current situation shows that after reaching 994, the second and third surges were both at 994 and 993, respectively, without breaking the previous high, and the earlier low of 976 has also been broken. Leaving aside any other situations, based solely on this point, I personally believe it does not meet the conditions for a bullish confirmation, as this is the true reflection of the market trend (of course, we cannot rule out the possibility of a false appearance or intentional inducement).

Additionally, the previous high of 996 has been touched three times with pullbacks. Assuming this wave of pullbacks can consecutively break the key positions of 973-965-956, then in the short term, we would be looking at a three-top phase, and the lower levels would need to test around 925-913, provided that those three key positions are broken.

We can only infer this conclusion based on objective facts. Currently, the trend has not emerged, and there is only a 50% chance. Once the results come out, we can revisit this conclusion.

As for the short positions I hold, I will discuss them in the live stream shortly. I'm also caught in them. It's important to be consistent, and I'm with you all. Thank you for your support and affection. Thank you!
#比特币市场波动观察