On December 24, MarketWatch reported that Bitcoin has been volatile since breaking through the $100,000 mark earlier this month. However, analysts at crypto research firm K33 stated that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could break new highs again by mid-January 2025, followed by a peak.
Yesterday, Bitcoin rose by 6.4%, currently quoted at $98,248 each. On December 17, Bitcoin hit a record high of $108,309 each, but fell after the Fed's hawkish stance last week.
Vetle Lunde, head of K33's research department, stated (cited), based on historical data, that the average time from Bitcoin's first historical peak to the last historical peak is 318 days. Since this cycle's first historical peak occurred on March 5, Bitcoin may reach a new high on January 17, 2025.
Generally, cryptocurrency analysts categorize Bitcoin's price performance into four-year cycles—each cycle includes four phases: breakthrough, speculation, adjustment, and accumulation. The four-year cycle is primarily based on the Bitcoin halving schedule, which controls Bitcoin's supply through the halving mechanism, occurring approximately every four years, with the most recent halving happening this April.
If Bitcoin indeed reaches a cyclical peak in mid-January, it will be close to Trump's presidential inauguration on January 20. Lunde believes that after Trump takes office, the momentum related to the Trump trade will taper off, with Bitcoin being one of them:
"Trump's election was a catalyst for Bitcoin's strong rebound in the fourth quarter, while the inauguration may mark a natural end to this momentum, as fulfilling Trump's policy promises requires political processes."
Lunde stated that based on the estimated peak prices of previous Bitcoin cycles, the peak of this cycle could reach $146,000 each; if referring to past market caps, the highest price of Bitcoin in this cycle could reach $212,500 each.
However, it is important to note that Bitcoin was launched in 2009, and as an asset, its time is still very short. Coupled with a small sample size, Bitcoin's historical price data may not be sufficiently representative, and past performance does not necessarily predict future performance.
Lunde pointed out that, in fact, as the halving effect diminishes, the cyclical effect of Bitcoin has also become less pronounced.
Currently, as the end of the year approaches, enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market seems to have cooled. As of Monday, Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows.
Furthermore, although MSTR announced on Monday that it had purchased 5,262 bitcoins at a price of approximately $106,662 each, analysts at crypto trading firm QCP Capital pointed out: "This is MSTR's smallest purchase amount in recent times, raising questions about whether MSTR's buying interest has weakened at this price level."
This blog believes: Bitcoin may form a peak, point B, before or after Trump's inauguration, either higher or lower than the previous value around 108,000, and then enter a period of adjustment, as the bullish speculation has already been priced in. If based on the bullish speculation starting point of Trump's campaign, the pullback should be in the range of 73,000-75,000, but given the current market's widespread expectations in this price range, the main forces are unlikely to provide opportunities, with a pullback to the 82,800-85,500 range!
Next, the market rotation rhythm: Bitcoin fully breaks through $100,000 after Christmas and enters a consolidation period, while altcoins enter a recovery phase around January 17, where profit-taking in altcoins needs to be timely realized while waiting for the market to enter an adjustment period!
