1. The short-selling intensive area is in the 100,000-101,000 range, around 1.2 billion. After a brief touch, $BTC did not continue upward clearance. Long positions are mainly concentrated at 96,000, and breaking below will liquidate 1.7 billion. The trading volume during the holiday is very small; Eastern market makers can basically control prices accurately within the 90,000-100,000 range, and the real trend will need to be confirmed on working days. The Christmas season can generally continue until around January 2, during which trading volume may not be too large. 2. Tomorrow, the 27th at 16:00 is the options expiration time, with $BTC's maximum pain point at 84,000, nominal funds at 14.42 billion USD, and in-the-money options at 4.2 billion USD. If the in-the-money options of 4.2 billion are exercised, it may approach 84,000, which has had a significant impact in previous cycles. However, the most likely scenario is to choose an extension. Due to the introduction of spot ETFs and numerous institutions, the current options expiration time has less obvious impact on prices. This may be the only bearish factor at present. 3. According to historical statistics on [Long-Term Holder Trends], the bull market has not yet ended, the process is at about 30% of the bull market cycle, and there should be about 20% left to the peak. Long-term holders are statistically based on on-chain address data holding for more than one year. [Long-Term Holder Trends] is one of the very few pieces of statistical data in the topping-out indicators that has not been falsified, and it may also be metaphysical. 4. Binance's Bitcoin reserves have fallen below 570,000, reaching a new low since January this year. The decrease in exchange reserves indicates that buyers are willing to hold long-term and unwilling to sell, locking it on-chain, which provides strong support for the existing price. 5. The exchange's own tokens are still hot, similar to the stock market principle, buying brokerages in a bull market. When exchanges make money, they will take out a portion to promote their own tokens. Bitget's $BGB broke 6.3, reaching a historical high. gate.io's $GT broke 15, reaching a historical high. #“圣诞老人行情”再现 #比特币市场波动观察