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The rebound in Bitcoin prices is like a Christmas surprise, bringing it close to the $100,000 mark, temporarily alleviating the crisis of falling below the 50-day moving average. However, in the absence of some investors in the U.S., especially institutional investors, Bitcoin's volatility range remains constrained between the 20-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. Although this range has narrowed, there is still a volatility amplitude of $5,000.

Previously, the positive premium of COIN base was the key force driving the market upward, but with the Christmas holiday approaching, it has shown a continuous negative premium. As the largest exchange in the U.S., this premium situation best reflects the sentiment of the American market: a positive premium indicates strong buying power in the U.S. market, while the opposite indicates significant selling pressure. Relatively speaking, Binance's buying power is more active, while the demand in the U.S. market has clearly declined, and the market has not yet shown clear signs of recovery, with the spot ETF experiencing capital outflows for three consecutive days.

Currently, data from Black Rock is not available, but overall, the market showed a state of capital outflow yesterday. Even strong players like Black Rock saw a small amount of capital outflow last Friday. The second-largest Bitcoin spot ETF—Fidelity's FBTC—has recently faced capital outflows four times. Therefore, when the spot ETF resumes capital inflow will be a key factor for Bitcoin to truly achieve a rebound.

This round of rebounds has caused some short positions to incur losses. When Bitcoin rose to $97,600, some late-entry long positions were liquidated after a slight price pullback. However, for the spot market, the earlier low points are still considered good buying opportunities.
According to relevant reports, since May 2023, whenever COIN base's negative premium reaches a specific low point, Bitcoin's price has experienced a significant rebound, and this is already the fifth occurrence of such a situation. If we analyze Bitcoin's previous net trading volume, it shows the balance of power between buyers and sellers by identifying proactive buying and selling behaviors. Currently, it is clear that buyer strength is weak, and selling pressure continues to dominate.