Last night, Bitcoin tested its highs again, nearing 99,500, but significant internal divergence remains. Bears are worried about a sluggish market, while bulls hold onto their beliefs, unwilling to give up. In the current height, time node, and cycle process, such divergence is normal.
In my opinion, if Bitcoin can stabilize and not fall within the range of 90,000 to 92,000, then after a period of adjustment, the secondary market is expected to welcome a turnaround. However, if it falls below this range, the adjustment time may be extended accordingly. Based on the current situation, the likelihood of breaking below this range in the short term is low, so investors can start paying attention and seeking trading opportunities in the secondary market.
In the short term, Bitcoin faces a resistance level of 99,500, while the support level is at 96,500. Our target price is 102-104k, and investors can formulate trading strategies based on this.
Last night, the market was bustling. Whether it was altcoins leading Bitcoin's rise or Bitcoin driving the leap of altcoins, this detail is no longer important. The key is that market sentiment and confidence have significantly recovered. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 100,000, while the altcoin market has already started its upward mode.
Recently, the focus of the altcoin market has mainly been on Grayscale's carefully selected altcoins such as ZEN, LPT, BAT, etc. Among them, ZEN has performed exceptionally well, with an astonishing increase, while also driving up other low market cap altcoins held by Grayscale, such as LPT and BAT.
Another trend worth noting is the rebound around Binance's new coins, with projects like MOVE and ME performing well in this wave of rebound, attracting the attention of many investors.
The current logic for playing altcoins:
Follow the big funds, find a perspective and funds will flock to it, so I give small investors a thought: under the current market conditions, the probability of losing money is relatively low. Find a target related to institutional concepts, invest all in, take profits of 20-30 points and then withdraw. This is more effective than diversifying funds to buy other targets.
Trump is about to take office, and related concept coins should also be hyped soon. In the upcoming altcoin market, everyone can participate according to the logic of selecting coins based on the president and Grayscale's strict selection.
Trump's strict selections include: AAVE, ENA, LINK, ETH, ONDO
Trump-related concept coins: RSR, ZRX, COW
Grayscale's selected coins: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, FIL, BAT
In a bull market, market fluctuations are more intense. Bitcoin's pullback usually does not exceed 20%, Ethereum rarely exceeds 40%, while a pullback of around 30% in other altcoins is quite common. Importantly, during a bull market, we should maintain a certain position, accept and adapt to small pullbacks, and avoid missing out on the overall upward trend due to minor losses.
The current market's trading tactics tend to actively intervene during significant declines, laying out positions by buying at low prices. In the face of a declining market, we should build positions in batches to avoid being fully invested at once. Here is a practical operation mantra: 'Buy small on small dips, buy big on big dips, don’t buy if it doesn’t dip; sell small on small rises, sell big on big rises, don’t sell if it doesn’t rise.' By following this strategy, we can effectively avoid chasing highs and achieve a role transition from 'chives' to 'scythe.'
Looking ahead, the starting point of the new market trend is expected to emerge in early January 2025. As institutions and listed companies complete their annual investment return settlements, Wall Street institutions will reposition in the new year, and January is expected to be a period of frequent major actions. At the same time, retail investors in North America will return to the crypto circle after the holidays, injecting new vitality into the market. Therefore, we need to be patient and wait until the market officially starts.
During this period, our core strategy is to hold onto our chips and wait for the intensive introduction of cryptocurrency policies after Trump takes office at the beginning of the year, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025. Additionally, as more countries incorporate Bitcoin into their asset reserves and the long-simmering altcoin market is about to explode, we are expected to welcome broader investment opportunities.