Ethereum's 4-hour chart.
Each K-line represents 4 hours, and 6 K-lines represent 24 hours. The K-line trends in recent days have shown the victory or defeat of both bulls and bears.
But can you understand these? If not, how do you judge whether the next trend will be up or down?
Many people are still waiting for Ethereum to drop below 3,000 and buy back when it falls to just over 2,000, but why would the market drop? Is it just because of the previous decline that it must continue to drop?
Therefore, all of this stems from an 'illusion'; relying on intuition to trade is unsustainable, and occasional success is merely due to luck.
Why do we often hear such sentiments: 'Wow, this coin is really rising, I bought it before, it's a pity I sold it.' 'Oh, I sold too early, I made 10 points, but missed out on ten times the profit.'
So, why do we always miss out on making money opportunities? In fact, we can understand this by observing the current market conditions.
When the market is falling, everyone is always worried about a significant drop; however, once it rises, they fear a pullback, always thinking of selling first and buying back when prices drop.
Now, the question arises: can you identify the signals of market tops and bottoms? If you can't recognize the top signals, why do you fear a drop and choose to sell when prices rise slightly? And why do you think there will be a significant drop and choose to wait when prices fall slightly?
Whenever the market rises sharply, retail investors tend to feel uneasy because they either sell too early or miss the opportunity.
In fact, the market has not reached its peak, but due to misunderstanding and fear of the market, worrying that profits will be given back, they choose to sell too early. This is the reason for 'being unable to earn profits beyond the range of understanding.'
Bitcoin's second test, last night peaked around 99,500. The market's divergence remains obvious, with bears seeing a sluggish market and bulls trying to seize opportunities. There’s no way around it; the current heights, the current time point, and the current cycle process are moments of divergence.
In my view, if it doesn't drop below 90,000-92,000, it will adjust for a while, and good days in the secondary market will slowly arrive. If it breaks, the adjustment time will be prolonged. Currently, the probability of a short-term break is low; we can start looking for trading opportunities in the secondary market. Bitcoin's short-term pressure is at 99,500, support at 96,500, and the target is 102-104k.
Last night's market dynamics were surprising. It is unclear whether altcoins drove the rise of Bitcoin or Bitcoin led the performance of altcoins, but that no longer matters. The recovery of market sentiment and confidence has led Bitcoin to oscillate around 100,000, while altcoins have already started to rise.
In recent days, the altcoin market has focused on the theme of Grayscale's selected coins, such as ZEN, LPT, and BAT. ZEN's increase is very significant, and related low-market-cap altcoins have also risen, including LPT and BAT. Additionally, there is a trend around the rebound of new coins on Binance, such as MOVE and ME.
The current logic for playing altcoins:
Follow the big funds, find an angle, and the funds will rush up en masse. So, I give small investors an idea: under the current market conditions, the probability of losing money is relatively low. Find a target with an institutional concept, go all in, take a profit of 20-30 points, and exit. This is more effective than diversifying your funds into other targets.
Trump's selected coins: AAVE, ENA, LINK, ETH, ONDO.
Trump-related concept coins: RSR, ZRX, COW.
Grayscale's selected coins: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, FIL, BAT.
