1. Analysis of open interest and market sentiment

Existing data:

• **Total Open Interest: **$220 million.

• Distribution of major exchanges:

• Binance: $33.212 million (37.27%).

• Bybit: $25.442 million (29.59%).

• OKX: $18.667 million (21.74%).

• Bitget: $8.71 million (10.10%).

• **1 hour change:** Open interest fell 7%-12% across multiple exchanges.

Interpretation:

1. Positions on most exchanges decreased:

• Indicates that some investors have begun to close their positions, possibly locking in profits during a price correction.

• This change may signal that market sentiment is turning cautious in the short term, and bulls may be reducing their positions.

2. Binance has the highest share:

• Binance’s UXLINK holdings are close to 40% of the total, suggesting the exchange may be a major driver of price movements.

• If there is a large liquidation or increase of positions on Binance, it will directly affect the market trend.

3. High total positions and high price volatility:

• The current open interest reaches US$220 million, which indicates that the market is highly leveraged and prone to chain liquidation effects due to price fluctuations.

2. Technical analysis

Price Action and Technical Indicators:

• **Highest price:** $3.833, a significant increase in the short term.

• **Current price: **$2.613, which has fallen significantly from the high.

• **Trading volume:** Trading volume is decreasing after the recent peak, indicating that market trading activity is declining.

Support and pressure levels:

1. **Support level: **$2.50 (lower limit of recent shock range).

2. **Pressure level: **$3.00 (psychological pressure range). If there is no breakthrough, the price may fall further.

Interpretation of MACD and trading volume:

• **MACD Downward:** Indicates that the market may have entered a correction phase and bulls have lost momentum.

• **Decreased trading volume: **Reduced buying in the short term may indicate further price declines.

3. Predict the next market trend

Possible short-term trends:

1. If the open interest continues to decline:

• Sentiment has turned cautious and bulls may gradually unwind their positions, with the price possibly falling below the $2.50 support.

• Bearish sentiment may gradually build up, bringing new downward pressure.

2. If open interest increases again:

• Bulls may use the pullback to add to positions in an attempt to push the price above $3.00.

• The market may once again enter a highly volatile range, attracting more short-term traders.

Long term trend:

• If bulls continue to reduce positions in the market and volumes remain subdued, the price could gradually fall back below $2.00.

• A rebound could result from large capital inflows or positive news (such as the listing of a new exchange).

4. Operational suggestions

If you are bullish:

• Wait for the price to pull back to around $2.50 to add to the position, setting a stop loss below $2.30.

• If the price breaks through $3.00, you can ride the trend, but you need to pay close attention to whether the trading volume follows suit.

If bearish:

• Consider opening short positions in batches in the $2.90-$3.00 range, with a target price below $2.50.

• Choose leverage carefully to avoid losses caused by sudden market rebounds.

Risk control:

• Keep an eye on changes in positions at any time, especially the position distribution and trading volume of major exchanges such as Binance and Bybit.

• Set reasonable stop loss and take profit points to avoid losses caused by large fluctuations.

in conclusion

Currently, the UXLINK market has entered a stage of high volatility, and market sentiment is changing. It is recommended to choose appropriate operating strategies based on changes in positions and price trends, and to pay attention to market emergencies at any time.

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