Glassnode Research: The extent of Bitcoin's correction in each cycle is weakening, possibly entering the later stages of the bull market

Glassnode's latest weekly report indicates that the extent of corrections during the Bitcoin bull market rally has gradually weakened. This is one of the periods with the least volatility in this cycle. Moreover, Bitcoin wealth is significantly flowing from long-term holders to new investors, which suggests that the bull market may have entered its later stages. (Background: Glassnode: A deep analysis of post-election capital flows and the strong drive from the spot market, will BTC continue to rise?) (Context: Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin is just experiencing a normal correction! Matrixport is optimistic that 90,000 to 95,000 is the bottom, accumulating momentum for a rise in 2025) Bitcoin (BTC) hit a historic high of $108,365 on the 17th, followed by a major correction of nearly 15%, dropping to a low of $92,268 on the 21st, but in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has shown a relatively strong rebound, currently reported at $98,085. The extent of corrections during the Bitcoin bull market is weakening. In response to the selling pressure that led to the 15% correction in Bitcoin over the past week, Glassnode analyzed in its latest weekly report that "although extreme selling pressure usually accompanies significant price increases in Bitcoin, the severity of market corrections during each bull market rally tends to decrease as the market scale grows." The report states that the deepest drop in this cycle was -32%, occurring on August 5th this year. Most declines only caused the BTC price to fall 25% from local highs, indicating that this cycle is one of the least volatile periods to date. This phenomenon may reflect the huge demand brought by the Bitcoin spot ETF, as well as the increasing interest from institutional investors. Source: Glassnode Long-term Bitcoin holders have realized profits reaching a historical high of $2.1 billion. Additionally, as prices have remained above $100,000 for several consecutive weeks, long-term holders are taking the opportunity to allocate supply to new demand. This has led to a recent historical high of $2.1 billion in realized profits for the long-term holder group. The report uses a simplified assumption that each seller matches with a buyer, which can provide some insight into the strength of demand, potentially representing that the demand side has provided about $2.1 billion in new capital to the market. Source: Glassnode Bitcoin wealth redistribution Meanwhile, Bitcoins aged between 6 to 12 months have dominated the current selling pressure, realizing $27.3 billion in profits since last November, accounting for 38.5% of the total. In contrast, tokens older than this remain relatively dormant. Source: Glassnode The above data also shows a significant increase in the proportion of wealth held by new investors, highlighting a strong demand situation and reflecting that in the Bitcoin bull market, wealth is flowing from long-term holders to new investors. However, the proportion of network wealth held by these new investors has not yet reached the heights experienced during previous ATH cycle peaks. The explanation here is that the market may not have reached the excitement and saturation levels of speculators seen in earlier cycles. The bull market has not yet peaked. Finally, the report observes the AVIV ratio, an indicator that helps assess the average unrealized profits (paper gains) held by active investors in the market to measure whether the market's profitability relative to participants is overheated. Typically, when all categories of investors achieve substantial profits, the bull market ends, leading to significant supply-side pressure and a severe lack of new investors willing to buy at current prices. Currently, the AVIV ratio has not yet reached the extreme range of +3σ, indicating that the market may still have room to operate before the profits held by ordinary investors become too tempting. Source: Glassnode Conclusion: The bull market may be in its later stages. The report concludes that as long-term holders continue to actively distribute tokens on a large scale, supply-side forces are becoming increasingly prominent, realizing an impressive $2.1 billion in realized profits. However, strong demand is also evident, largely offsetting the significant selling pressure from existing holders. Furthermore, the proportion of network wealth held by new investors has significantly increased, supporting the concept of strong demand. However, this indicates that wealth distribution is moving away from mature investors, which typically occurs in the later stages of a bull market. Related reports: Is the bottom indicator accurate? Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium just broke 0.2%, BTC starts a strong rebound. Bitcoin jumped 5% in one night, breaking $99,000! BCA Research: Three reasons the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by more than 2 basis points next year. This Friday, the "largest scale ever" $14 billion Bitcoin options expiration, beware of market volatility. Who is selling Bitcoin down to $90,000? Glassnode: $76,000 to $88,000 is a key level for short-term retracement. "Glassnode Research: The extent of Bitcoin's correction in each cycle is weakening, possibly entering the later stages of the bull market" was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).