Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Since Binance launched Binance Alpha on December 18, it has listed a total of 38 tokens. In the first phase, most of the tokens listed were extremely high market cap tokens, resulting in less significant gains; while in the fifth phase, WHALES experienced significant increases due to their very small market cap. So how should one invest?
In this article, we will answer several questions through detailed data:
How is the short-term listing effect?
How is the medium to long-term listing effect?
Do different chains exhibit different gain and loss patterns?
Is there a connection between the listing effect and market capitalization?
Data overview
The 5-minute price change, 1-hour price change, and cumulative price change since listing for the 38 tokens in the sixth phase of Binance Alpha are shown in the table below. All price data is sourced from TradingView's 5-minute candlestick chart; market capitalization is based on circulating market capitalization from CoinGecko.
To objectively compare whether the cumulative gains and losses outperform the entire market, this article selects three tokens as reference objects, namely arc on Solana, VIRTUAL on Base, and BTC. (Note: PSTAKE could not find trading pairs with sufficient liquidity, and price fluctuations are very large, so it is omitted here.)
How is the short-term listing effect?
From the table above, we can see that the average 5-minute price changes from the first to the sixth phase are all positive, namely 14%, 23%, 18%, 5%, 22%, and 0%. It can be seen that Binance Alpha also has a short-term listing effect, but compared to the Binance platform itself, the gap is certainly large. For reference, the average value of the 5-minute listing effect for Moonshot is about 30%, which is relatively close. (Recommended readings (CHILLGUY 12x in one day, but most of the wealthy created by Moonshot can't benefit), (Promoting Meme trend indicators, does Moonshot really have a listing effect?).)
However, further analysis shows that the short-term gains are mainly contributed by a few outstanding tokens, while the majority of tokens have negligible gains.
The chart below shows the price change bars for three time periods, where it can be clearly seen that the red portion (5-minute price change) has a few outstanding bars, but most of the price changes are very small.
How is the medium to long-term listing effect?
Taking the 1-hour closing price as a reference, it can be seen from the table that most tokens still maintain positive gains (green bars above the 0 axis) one hour after being listed.
For users who may not be quick enough to buy, comparing the closing price after one hour to the closing price after 5 minutes (where the green bar is below the red bar indicates a relative decline), we find that the relative gains and losses for six phases are -10%, -7%, 3%, -3%, 4%, and 4%. This means that if you buy slowly, you will get stuck in the medium term.
How is the long-term performance? It can be clearly seen from the blue bars in the chart that after the tokens were listed on Binance Alpha, their long-term gains are significantly better than the short-term gains. For most users, it is more suitable to first research which are quality projects after listing, and then wait for a pullback to buy at a low price while waiting for long-term gains.
Are long-term gains driven by the overall uptrend of the crypto market, or is there indeed an impact from the platform? From the three reference groups of arc, VIRTUAL, and BTC, we can see that during the first three batches of listings, the market was in a downtrend, but the listed tokens still had positive gains. Therefore, overall, listing on Binance Alpha does represent a long-term benefit for the tokens.
Do different chains exhibit different patterns in gains and losses?
Organized by chain, the data tables and bar charts are shown below. The differences among the chains are very obvious; Ethereum leads significantly in 5-minute price changes, while Base is the weakest; in terms of long-term gains, Solana is far ahead, with the other three chains showing little difference.
The data for tokens on the Solana chain is shown below; overall, the differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price changes are not significant, while the long-term gains are far ahead, possibly making it the most suitable chain for participation in Binance Alpha.
The Ethereum data is shown below; the differences between 5 minutes and 1 hour have significantly increased compared to Solana. The table indicates that the average gain for 5 minutes is 24%, and for 1 hour is 17%, but the cumulative gain since listing is only 24%. Ethereum incurs extremely high gas costs to secure advantageous positions in the short term, but the overall gains are not substantial, thus currently, the participation value is minimal.
The BNB Chain data is shown in the chart below, where the differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price changes have further expanded. However, it can be seen that the tokens with the best long-term gains (purple bars) are all tokens with small 1-hour price changes.
The Base data is shown below, with the main contributors to the gains being LUNA and ODOS. The sample size is relatively small, making it difficult to identify the underlying patterns.
Is there a connection between the listing effect and market capitalization?
According to market capitalization in ascending order, the data for each time period is shown in the chart below. It is clear that the tokens with the most significant short-term increases are all small-cap tokens, but they also have the largest declines in the 1-hour period. There is no obvious correlation between long-term gains and market capitalization.
