Recently, the Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF fund of Australia (IBTC) reported holding 261 BTC as of December 24. This will have certain impacts on the cryptocurrency market, especially looking further ahead to 2025. Let's analyze and seek opportunities.
1. Impact on market sentiment
• Trust in Bitcoin and the crypto ETF market: The existence and operation of Bitcoin ETF funds, especially those managed in countries like Australia, help reinforce the belief that cryptocurrencies are increasingly being accepted in traditional finance. This could stimulate participation from institutional and individual investors.
• Short-term impact: The report holding 261 BTC is not a particularly large number on a global scale, but it still reflects the ongoing accumulation of digital assets by institutions. This could create a slight "optimistic wave" in the short term, especially if accompanied by other positive trends.
2. Medium and long-term impact (up to 2025)
Growth of Bitcoin ETF funds:
• Expanding capital flow into the crypto market: The ability of ETF funds like Monochrome Spot to attract more investors in the coming years could increase demand for Bitcoin. If these funds continue to increase their holdings, the price of Bitcoin could be driven by supply constraints (especially in the context of limited BTC supply).
• Ability to spread global ETF trends: The success of funds like IBTC could encourage other countries to approve more Bitcoin ETF products, thereby enhancing the legitimacy and infrastructure for the market.
Impact on Bitcoin price and the crypto market:
• Bitcoin halving in 2024: The event of reducing the Bitcoin block reward expected to occur in 2024 will slow the rate of new BTC supply entering the market. Combined with the increasing holdings of ETF funds, this could create significant upward price pressure in 2025 if demand continues to rise.
• Transformation from institutional investors: The actions of IBTC and similar funds may lead to larger financial institutions (banks, investment funds) becoming more actively involved in the market. This not only boosts asset value but also increases stability for the market.
3. Factors to consider
• Legal regulation: The future of the crypto market still heavily depends on the development of the legal framework in major countries. If Australia, the US, or the EU implement favorable regulations for Bitcoin ETF funds, this will boost market development.
• Competition with other assets: By 2025, Bitcoin and crypto assets will have to compete with traditional investments (stocks, gold) as well as emerging assets (CBDCs, government stablecoins). The success of IBTC depends on its ability to maintain the attractiveness of Bitcoin in this competitive environment.
Conclusion
The IBTC fund holding 261 BTC is one of the important steps, reflecting a positive trend in bringing Bitcoin into traditional finance. Although the current number is still modest, along with many funds increasing their BTC holdings, it could contribute significantly to the growth and maturation of the crypto market by 2025.