Bitcoin delivers a 'gift' on Christmas Eve.
Last night (the 24th), Bitcoin delivered a surprise on Christmas Eve, starting to rise rapidly around 20:45, breaking through multiple resistance levels, peaking at $99,480 at midnight. It has slightly retreated during writing, currently reported at $98,063, with an increase of about 5% in the past 24 hours.
Ethereum breaks through $3,500, SOL stands above $200, and most mainstream altcoins rebound under the influence of Bitcoin.
Do you remember the Christmas market hinted at by Little Meow on Weibo? Little Meow was bullish at that time!
Is market sentiment improving?
Let's look at two indicators:
Does the negative premium hint at a rebound? Bitcoin faces potential buying opportunities.
As Christmas approaches, some investors worry that Bitcoin may continue to decline due to a lack of upward momentum. However, Bitcoin currently shows a negative premium of -0.221% on Coinbase, reflecting a decrease in buying demand from American investors, but this phenomenon is usually short-lived in a bull market and may present buying opportunities.
This is the fifth appearance of a similar negative premium on Coinbase since May last year. Based on historical performance, once the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, although the price may further adjust in the short term, the overall trend often rebounds quickly, attracting more new buyers.
It cannot be fully confirmed whether Bitcoin has hit the bottom, but if the bull market continues, this negative premium may signal the approach of a bottom and indicate a potential rebound. For spot traders, this could be an important indicator worth long-term attention.
The Federal Reserve may cut rates by more than 50 basis points next year.
An increasing number of analysts believe that the Fed's rate cuts next year may exceed expectations. An investment institution, BCA Research, pointed out in its latest report that the actual rate cut by the Fed next year may exceed the 50 basis points estimated in this month’s FOMC meeting.
The report mentioned that the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index released by the U.S. Department of Commerce for November was lower than market expectations. The core PCE, as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, could see the annual inflation rate drop to 2.5% by March next year if the current trend continues for the next three months; if calculated based on a six-month average, this target could even be achieved as early as February. This indicates that inflation may decline earlier and more significantly than the Fed predicts.
The U.S. unemployment rate has risen from a cyclical low of 3.4% to 4.2%, and it may rise further in the future. This raises doubts about the Fed's goal of keeping the year-end unemployment rate at 4.3%. Against the backdrop of a cooling labor market, the Fed may be forced to increase the intensity of rate cuts.
In addition, Trump is about to take office, which may lead to new tariff policies after he assumes power. This could trigger a short-term rebound in inflation while putting pressure on the manufacturing sector, further prompting the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts in the second half of next year.
This Friday, options for Bitcoin and Ethereum valued at approximately $20 billion will expire, and the market may experience a new wave of volatility.
If Bitcoin rebounds to above $100,000, volatility may remain stable; however, if it continues to hover below $100,000, altcoins may start a rebound.
A similar situation occurred a month ago when the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate rebounded from the support level of 0.032, driving altcoins up. Currently, it is necessary to closely observe Bitcoin's trend to judge the direction of market capital rotation and the trends of other cryptocurrencies.
That's all for today's article. Currently in a bull market, with winds and clouds swirling, we share passwords every day. If you're unsure how to navigate the bull market, feel free to follow us for spot trading passwords and strategic layouts, which can be shared free of charge.
