Author: Game
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Fear of 'this is the last cycle' + uncertainty about how long good times can last + social pressure from others performing better. These three constitute a deadly combination that ruins many people's decision-making abilities.
Possible consequences:
Distraction: Blindly chasing every hot trend while neglecting the necessity to focus on key trades.
Pessimism and hesitation: Losing confidence due to uncertainty, making it impossible to hold any asset for the long term, or even completely avoiding the market.
Lack of belief: Insufficient research on projects, unable to build enough confidence to cope with market fluctuations.
Lack of profit strategy: Eager to liquidate at any slight correction in Bitcoin due to fear of the market ending, missing out on greater profit potential.
Response suggestions:
Focus on key areas:
Focus on one or two specific areas or trending narratives within the chain.
Make a clear choice: on-chain trading or secondary trading, and focus on one direction.
If you think you can dabble in all areas at once, you are just fooling yourself. Concentrate your resources and energy on the field that best fits the current market conditions and offers the highest returns. Combine your capital scale, advantages, and market environment to find the most suitable direction and strategy for yourself.
Clarify your operational approach:
Understand whether you are investing, trading, or speculating; these three have essential differences and should not be confused.
A simple judgment framework can help you differentiate between these methods and develop corresponding strategies.
Stick to your plan:
Develop a clear action plan that includes the following elements:
Market cap range: Determine which market cap range you will enter the market.
Profit plan: Develop rules for taking profits in batches, rather than completely liquidating due to fear.
Target estimate: Set a target price that your assets may reach, along with a time frame for achieving that target.
Stop-loss conditions: Clearly define when you need to partially or fully stop-loss, which can be based on changes in fundamentals or technicals, or due to changes in the macroeconomic environment (e.g., upcoming important data). For example, in an uncertain macro environment, it may be appropriate to take some profits and wait for a better entry point.
Know yourself:
Identify your weaknesses: Do you lack experience? Is there a lack of technical skills? Is there an overly optimistic or pessimistic psychological bias? Are there issues with improper capital management or lack of time?
If you find that your weaknesses in these areas are greater than others, decisively abandon competition in this field. Choose a direction where you have an advantage and focus on the areas you are best at.
Continuous improvement
Reflect seriously after each trade - what actions were successful, what were failures, and what were the reasons? Was the issue with the process or the decision, or was the decision itself reasonable but the outcome unsatisfactory?
Your goal is to continuously reduce errors in operations, gradually improve your win rate through accumulated experience, and appropriately increase your position size when the hit rate is higher.
If you ignore this process, you are likely to get stuck in a long-term cycle of indecision, making it difficult to achieve real progress both psychologically and in terms of profit and loss performance.
Don't go it alone
In the market, reliable partners are crucial. They not only hold you accountable for your actions but also help you fill in your gaps.
Truly high-quality trading opportunities often come from mutual support within the team - you fill in their shortcomings, and they help you improve yourself.
Quality over quantity: The number of partners is not necessarily better. What you need are high-hit-rate, trustworthy traders who are at your level or even better in the areas you are concerned with.
Broaden your horizons: Establish a small circle different from your main field; these people can provide you with important information on macro trends, market cycles, and other insights beyond your direct focus. These insights will ultimately feed back into your overall market understanding, helping you develop better strategies.
