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KOL助手
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$FXS
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I casually copied some reef and am waiting to take off
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随着2025年临近,与其预测市场走向不如提出一个黑天鹅事件预测:明年可能会出现什么样的黑天鹅事件? 目前我认为最有可能的黑天鹅事件是发展中国家或亚洲货币危机。我们已经看到美元持续走强,川普上台也会继续强美元,如果美债收益率继续走高,那么美元也会继续上涨。这里我解释一下背后的宏观逻辑: 随着美债收益率走高,全球投资者会更愿意购买这些债券因为它们收益更高,这将从发展中国家吸走资金回流美国,为了购买这些美债,投资者需要买美元,因此美元会随着收益率上升而继续上涨,这种趋势对发展中国家尤其不利。目前一些发展中乃至发达国家汇率已经大幅贬值,像印度卢比、巴西雷亚尔和韩元等都跌至多年低点。纵观历史上几次涉及发展中国家的危机,尤其是90年代末的几次,这些危机很多都始于货币贬值然后迅速恶化。有时部分大型跨国公司在这些国家发行了美元计价的债券,因此随着本币对美元的贬值,这些公司的偿债成本大幅上升。因此这无疑是需要关注的风险。我会将这列为2025年潜在的黑天鹅榜首。 AI赛道明年也是大变局,AI硬件增速要放缓,但与此同时AI软件正在爆发,所以这轮抄底你应该知道抄什么了吧?$LPT 上周五抄的现在快翻倍了
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拿了两周的空单又到了收获的季节$THETA $SOL
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从$OMNI 赚的钱开gpt o1 pro 200u一个月一点也不贵
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其实只看我动态就算没办法第一时间跟有模型的小伙伴一样吃肉,也能喝上一口汤吧$THETA
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全网爆了15e,又一次带领大家躲过瀑布,真的很舒服 $SOL $NOT $BTC
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