Bitcoin (BTC) had a disappointing December, with prices falling below $92,500 this week, a four-week low. Compared with its high near $108,000 in mid-December, Bitcoin has fallen 14.5%, causing market expectations for a "Santa Rally" to quickly cool.

Market chill: rebound is hard to come by

Over the past week, Bitcoin prices continued to decline, with a weekly drop of more than 11%, far worse than its historical holiday performance during the bull market cycle.
The "Santa Claus rally" is investors' beautiful expectation for price increases in the last few days of the year, but this year's BTC has not continued the strong performance of the previous years before the cycle peaks such as 2020 and 2016. In contrast, market sentiment is currently in a downturn, especially after the consecutive years of decline after the cycle peak in 2021, investors' confidence in the holiday rebound has been greatly weakened.

Can historical patterns save the market?

According to CoinGecko, since 2014, Bitcoin has experienced a rise of varying degrees in 8 out of the last 10 years following Christmas. This rebound is particularly more likely when the market is in an upward cyclical phase. However, this month's dramatic drop in Bitcoin seems to have broken that historical inertia.

Complicating matters, the upcoming expiration of $18 billion in BTC and ETH options contracts on December 27 may trigger market volatility. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears, along with the thin liquidity of the holiday market, could keep Bitcoin in a state of turmoil in the short term.

Opportunity for Recovery: Is Market Sentiment Reaching Bottom?

Despite the sluggish market, Bitcoin's Social Sentiment Index hit its annual low on December 22. This indicator is often seen as a contrarian signal, and the low market sentiment may suggest that a recovery is near. The cyclical patterns in the crypto market also provide a basis for optimism: if 2025 is indeed the peak of a new cycle, then the current pullback may just be a brief adjustment before the peak.

Waiting for signals in the cold wind

Currently, while the hope for Bitcoin's 'Santa Claus Rally' is low, both historical and sentiment indicators show that the market has not completely lost its upward momentum. The key going forward will be the performance after the December 27 options expiration, as well as whether the global macroeconomic environment continues to develop favorably.

What do you think about Bitcoin's chances of rebounding against the trend by the end of the year? Is it a Christmas miracle or a continuation of the winter? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
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