Understand the purpose of the operator.
If you are Elon Musk and you have 10 billion Dogecoin in spot and 1 billion in spare funds to operate, your top priority now is to help Trump establish MAGA and become the new founding father of America.

So what is your cash-out purpose for Dogecoin? The core is simple: to ensure that while Musk achieves his political goals, the stability of his core assets increases. His core assets are the stocks of Tesla and SpaceX. Assets like Dogecoin are the most marginal. Therefore, it can be said that all Dogecoin is used as a sacrifice for core assets, especially in times of crisis.

In other words, Musk cashing out Dogecoin happens when he believes there is a severe crisis with his company's stock or political goals. This distribution can be extremely brutal because after the crash, he can buy back in. He can consume all liquidity in both directions because if Musk's companies fail, Dogecoin would be meaningless, just returning to its origins.

The core value of Dogecoin.
In other words, Dogecoin is equivalent to a leveraged weighted stake in SpaceX, Tesla, and PayPal. This is the value of Dogecoin. It's similar to the ABS bubble before 2008; when you buy Dogecoin, you are buying Tesla's debt, but Musk doesn't have to pay you back. The price of Dogecoin fluctuates around this value. If you understand Tesla, you can play with Dogecoin.

We will find an interesting point in the coin circle: Bitcoin has turned into a meme of US stocks, about to become a meme of precious metals gold, and Doge has become a meme of Tesla.


Operational logic.
Position building methods.
When bullish on the Dow and Nasdaq, buy Bitcoin as well; when bullish on Tesla, buy Doge as well.

Risk warning.
Currently, with a 10% correction, the Dow, Nasdaq, and Tesla are still at high levels. Not only are there many bears, but there are also many potential black swans, such as wars, and many gray rhinos, such as tariffs, repatriation, non-farm payrolls, and Powell's speech in December. Tesla has doubled, and Doge has tripled. If Tesla drops by 30%, Doge will be halved by 60%, which means going from 0.4 to 1.6; this is too easy, Musk doesn't need to call you for instructions.

Selling methods.
The rise of Bitcoin is unrelated to Dogecoin, but during a Bitcoin bear market, Dogecoin must also be bearish because a bear market means no liquidity in the market, no retail investors, and nothing at all. Therefore, you don't have to buy in a bull market, but you must sell at the end of the bull market, especially at the end of Bitcoin's bull market. The momentum of Bitcoin's bull market is essentially the overflow of global liquidity, and countries will not independently inject liquidity during US dollar interest rate hikes. Therefore, it can also be approximated as the overflow of US dollar interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. The end of the bull market is a precise turning point in monetary policy, such as interest rate hike signals, balance sheet reduction signals, and stopping interest rate cut signals, etc. The next is a big double top. It's highly deceptive—the end of Bitcoin's bull market is the altcoin season, meaning that the mid-term of altcoin season is Dogecoin's last chance to escape the top. Dogecoin becomes extremely risky when the altcoin season begins, as it is one of the few coins, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, logically related to US stocks and global liquidity.

Specific time examples.
For example, now it's the end of 2024. We know that in 2025, there will be moderate interest rate cuts and balance sheet reductions. Currently, no expansion information has been seen. Therefore, the altcoin season will arrive in 2025 Q3, Q4, or even later. Dogecoin's escape from the top will occur in the second half of 2025. In other words, now is all a bottom; going from 0.1 to 0.4 is a bottom, and dropping back to 0.2 is still a bottom.

#加密市场反弹

Recently, I plan to ambush a potential coin that is about to explode. Doubling is quite simple, and I also plan to find some potential coins to hold until the end of the year, expecting a space for more than 10 times is not a problem. If you want to follow me, leave a message, follow, and like, gold skirt.