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European and American markets, Christmas market closure.
Due to the Christmas holiday,
On Tuesday, the US stock market and Hong Kong stock market will close half a day early, while the European stock market will be closed for one day;
On Wednesday, the US, Hong Kong, and European stock markets will continue to be closed;
On Thursday, the Hong Kong and European stock markets will be closed.
This week, due to the 'Christmas holiday in Europe and America', the trading market is quite dull.
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Last week, Powell's speech triggered a 'panic sell-off' in global capital markets, and the BTC crypto market was particularly 'grim'.
The maximum drop in BTC price is 15%.
The maximum drop in ETH price is 25%.
The price of old altcoins has dropped by as much as 40% to 50%.
Some new coins have seen price drops exceeding 50%.
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So, how should we view the future trend of the BTC crypto market?
There are significant differences in opinions among various factions in the circle, with many believing 'this wave of the bull market has ended, and the downtrend will continue'.
At this time, I cannot 'follow the trend to be bearish'; at least this week will not 'continue to set new lows'.
Personal opinion: This week, the BTC crypto market enters a pattern of 'wide range fluctuation and consolidation'. BTC wide range price: $92,000 to $100,000 to $101,000, ETH wide range price: $3,100 to $3,600.
As for whether next month will see an upward fluctuation (rise) or continue a downward fluctuation (fall), it cannot be 'guessed randomly'; we need to wait for the US to release non-farm employment data, CPI data, Trump's return, and the new SEC chairman's assumption of office.
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In the short term, employment data will be key in determining whether to cut interest rates in January 2025. If the labor market does not worsen, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year.
The next Federal Reserve meeting: January 29, 2025, US time
According to Powell's speech last week, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January 2025.
If inflation continues to cool, a rate cut is expected in March 2025.
Despite the Federal Reserve's strong stance last week (only two rate cuts in 2025), with the release of economic data each month/quarter, there is a possibility of 'two rate cuts in the second half of 2025' (three times in total for the year).
So, the opportunities in the second half of 2025 outweigh the risks.
