$BTC The monthly line will be closed in a few days. It is Christmas in Europe and the United States, and New Year's Day is approaching. It is a very critical time node. It is necessary to look at the general direction of the monthly and weekly levels👇🏾
🏁Monthly level: The volatility of the market in December is reflected in this small K-line with almost no real body. From the perspective of form, a large positive line + small K-line + long upper shadow + closing below the pressure level is an obvious bearish signal, which I often mention when I interpret the market. Replay the closing pattern of March 21, is it very similar? Calculate the decline of the following month to be nearly 30,000 points. So if we just say if this month's closing line meets the above 4 conditions and closes below the monthly pressure level of 96,400 (📍 is also the daily and weekly pressure), we must have a certain risk expectation. From the perspective of the big structure, there is also the possibility of a 4-point rise here. If it effectively falls below the previous low of 90,800, the nearest support that can be foreseen below is near the middle track of the channel at 75,000, which will rise as the time to reach it extends. 75,000 is effectively broken and then looks down (as shown in the figure). Of course, it is unlikely to reach it in one step. The rise and fall of the sub-level and sub-sub-level is a wave of market and a wave of lines, and we will watch while we go. Don’t think it’s impossible just because the price of the coin has exceeded 100,000. Yes, after the ETF was approved, institutional whales continued to buy, but isn’t the essence of the financial market for arbitrage? Isn’t the rise and fall of 3,000 to 5,000 a night in this bull market? Not to mention the monthly calculation.
🏁 Weekly level: The closing line has already broken the mid-channel at 96500, but it closed above 93700. This is the point of support and resistance exchange that broke through at the weekly level, the last defense point for bulls. If the closing line effectively breaks here, the support levels below are around 90000, 81800, 80500, and 79000. Spot trading can be laid out with orders; 90000 is the closing price of the large bullish candle on the left side, making it more likely to move up from here towards point A.
🏁 Daily level: This morning's closing line was unable to break through the pressure point B at 96600, continuing downward. 94500 is the point of support and resistance exchange that broke through at the daily level at that time; pay attention to whether the closing line breaks below or recovers. Support levels below are around 92000, 91500, and 89000.
🏁 The key to trading is not to focus on small-level fluctuations (often being trapped is a misconception in the smaller levels below the 15-minute chart, hastily trying to catch tops and bottoms, a mistake I've made many times), the key is to observe the closing situation, patterns, top-bottom structures, and resonant support and resistance levels at the 4-hour level and above. For instance, 96600 is a resonance point across the monthly, weekly, and daily levels; the daily level must at least break through here to continue upward. Currently, as long as the 4-hour closing entity does not break below the left-side point A at 92600, combined with the stop-loss pattern, one can consider going long. At 96600, the options are whether to hold, take profit, or short, isn't there a strategy? 😉
