Friday's decline + V reversal basically covered the weekend's market. It's clear that with the double festival approaching, liquidity in the crypto market has noticeably weakened, so this week's market should primarily be fluctuating, and the profit effect will be much less than before.
On December 20, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 277 million, while Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 75.1 million. Even 1BIT from Beichaid was flowing out this time, which definitely marks a key turning point. It’s a very crucial turning point. Following the Ethereum Foundation, a second master of escaping tops has appeared. Sun Yuchen returned 39,999 ETH (143 million USD) from Lido Finance and ether.f, and then deposited all of it into HTX.
Since November 10, as the price of ETH began to rise, he has deposited 108,919 ETH (400 million USD) into HTX at an average price of 3,674 GBP. Currently, he still has 42,904 ETH (139 million USD) being unstaked from Lido, which may soon be deposited into HTX.
Sun Zhi was also a major player who escaped ETH at over 4500 back then. Although he still holds a lot, this wave should clearly indicate some signs of a top. This Friday is the annual options expiration date, also the expiration date for contracts and other derivatives. With the arrival of Christmas, liquidity is expected to be low. This week should mainly see a downward trend. Currently, the maximum pain point for annual options is 84000. Based on current data, if this Friday is below 90,000 USD.
Looking at the winning side of call options, they are already winning big. Of course, options can no longer influence the price change of Bitcoin. Currently, it seems that they might only suppress its upward momentum. Call buyers shouldn't make too much profit. Market interpretation: Last week's predictions were basically correct; the bottom was not the lowest. Reviewing last week's perspective, 94000 was the bottom, and a rebound to 99000 occurred. Currently, this wave has been executed perfectly, and as mentioned last week, there might still be new lows this week due to potential continued outflows from ETFs.
However, Bitcoin shouldn't drop too much either. This morning, the 4-hour level was pointing to a W bottom, but it doesn't seem very valid now and needs further observation. We also need to see if there will be an ETF follow-up decline after the US stock market opens tonight. The second coin is genuinely weak; the exchange rate isn't rebounding either, it’s stiff. Additionally, last Friday's pin seems to have triggered a chain liquidation. Sun’s calls might not be credible, but his escape from the top is indeed significant! SOL's lowest is 176; buying below 185 seems reasonable to hold, as SOL's daily line is already oversold.
This position has good cost-effectiveness; if it drops further, it will be off the screen, you understand? On the altcoin side: Over the weekend, MEME rebounded slightly, but I feel MEME is still not quite right. If you want to buy MEME, you need to be more open-minded. For example, if PNUT's high point is at 2.2, then I think 0.22 might be a reasonable bottom buying point. A similar bottom-buying strategy might actually help you catch the bottom.
This decline still highlights several strong coins, specifically those backed by the Trump team. Apart from LINK being slightly weaker, the others are still relatively strong. Speaking of ZEN, I feel that ZEN's growth potential isn't very large; this is purely a subjective opinion. Unlike XRP, it doesn't have that kind of major positive logic support, so it can't be compared on the same level.
