Tonight, the US stock market will open normally, and MSTR will officially join the Nasdaq 100. Tomorrow night, the US stock market will close early, and the market sentiment before the closure will be crucial, as it will directly affect the market atmosphere during the Christmas period.
But remember, the trend is still ongoing; even if BTC experiences a brief decline during the holidays, it will quickly recover. As the Federal Reserve's 'panic' sentiment gradually dissipates, the market will start to correct its emotions. Those worried investors have been gradually exiting in panic, leaving behind short-term investors and those willing to take risks.
This oscillation process is more like a cleansing of the 'unsure' investors. Looking back at history, whether it was oscillating from $26,000 to $73,000 or from $65,000 to $100,000, there have been long periods of oscillation adjustments. I believe the upcoming oscillation cycle will not be as long, especially since we have expectations for January. So, is the Christmas market crash imminent? How should we position ourselves now?
I believe that starting next week, the market will inevitably fall into the category of the Christmas holiday. BTC may oscillate between $94,000 and $98,000, and it may even continue to dip towards $90,000, but once it hits that level, it will quickly stabilize. Christmas does not always result in a downturn; the key lies in the market sentiment before Christmas.
If the market sentiment before Christmas is poor, it could indeed affect price movements due to low liquidity. However, considering there are sufficient expectations for January, I believe investors will be relatively rational. The performance of BTC during the holiday period over the past five years shows that although the volatility is large, the actual price fluctuations, except for 2020, have been within 10% in other years. Moreover, 80% of the years have shown relatively good price performance in the two months following the holidays. Therefore, opportunities always emerge from declines.
Remember, bullish opportunities always arise from declines. Large drops often give birth to significant opportunities. Now that the market's decline rate is starting to slow down, it is a favorable signal for bulls.
