Has this round of the bull market ended? No, the bull is still here!
Teacher Zhu Talks About Blockchain
Recently, the price of cryptocurrencies has dropped significantly; yesterday it fell to a low of 9.3, and other altcoins also dropped by 20%-30%. Everyone is feeling anxious, and some even say the bull market has ended. But I can clearly tell everyone that the bull market is still ongoing!
Why do I say this? The reasons are clear to everyone, mainly due to the hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, the situation should improve once Trump is back in office. Additionally, it's almost Christmas in the West, and institutional funds will likely withdraw some to avoid risks. After all, the crypto market trades 24 hours, and no one wants to be attacked while on vacation.
Let’s first take a look at the performance of cryptocurrency prices around Christmas over the years. I checked the price of BTC and found that from 2022 to 2023, it was a bear market, so the price hardly changed. In 2021, it was the end of the bull market, and prices dropped. In 2020, it was the prelude to the 2021 bull market, and prices were rising. In 2018-2019, prices were falling, but 2017 was a major bull market, so prices increased after Christmas.
According to this pattern, this round of the bull market should continue to rise after Christmas, as this round resembles the situation at the beginning of 2023.
So why do we say it hasn't turned bearish yet? Let's look at a few indicators:
Market Capitalization Proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum
The proportion of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization often reflects market sentiment. If Bitcoin's proportion is still relatively high, it indicates that the overall market sentiment is good, and the bull market may still be continuing. The same goes for Ethereum; if its proportion increases, it signifies that demand for applications like smart contracts and DeFi is still growing.
Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization proportion is 57.4%, and Ethereum is 12.1%. During the major bull market of 2021, Bitcoin's proportion dropped to a low of 40%, while Ethereum's proportion rose to 18.5%. So, based on Bitcoin's proportion, momentum is gathering, and it cannot just turn bearish.
Trading Volume
Trading volume is an important indicator of market heat. Continuous growth in trading volume indicates positive market sentiment and active investors. Currently, trading volume is indeed continuing to rise, about twice that of 2021, but it hasn't reached the peak of 2021 yet. It's worth noting that many institutions have entered the market, so this wave of trading volume will definitely be higher than the previous one, at least 600 to 800 billion.
Altcoin Season Indicator
The altcoin season indicator mainly reflects the proportion of altcoins. Many people say that altcoin season is over, but I have always emphasized that altcoin season will definitely return. Look at the crazy altcoin surge at the end of November; although the time was short, as long as the bull market hasn't ended, we can be sure that there will be more altcoin seasons ahead.
Although this wave of altcoins has surged significantly, the altcoin season indicator has only reached around 50. Look at the altcoin season indicator from 2021; it peaked at over 90. Therefore, even if this wave of altcoin season is weaker than the previous one, it should be at least 70-80; it cannot just end at 50. There will definitely be a crazier altcoin season ahead!
Rainbow Chart
We've looked at this indicator before, and we are currently at the lower edge of the rainbow chart pipeline, still in an upward trend. In 2021, the rainbow chart reached at least the fourth zone. I estimate that the prediction from the rainbow chart is that this wave of the bull market will start at least from $200,000!
Number of Active Addresses
The number of active addresses can reflect how many users are trading or holding cryptocurrency assets. If the number of active addresses continues to increase, it indicates that the market is attracting more new users, which is often a signal of a bull market. You can see the total address data for Bitcoin; during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, new addresses grew rapidly. Currently, there isn't such rapid change, so the bull market is definitely still ongoing.
On-chain Indicators
Network hash rate, especially Bitcoin's hash rate, reflects miners' confidence. If the hash rate continues to grow, it means miners are still optimistic about the network's security and long-term value. The current hash rate is around 830, with no signs of decline.
Total Value Locked (TVL) can also reflect the market's demand for decentralized finance. If TVL continues to grow, it indicates that the bull market is still ongoing. Currently, TVL hasn't reached the heights of 2021, but this wave will definitely be 2-3 times higher than the previous one because so many chains and applications have emerged, along with various Layer 2 solutions.
In summary, it is absolutely impossible that we have already reached the peak of the bull market and turned bearish. At most, we are in the mid-bull market. Moreover, according to the rainbow chart's prediction, this wave of the bull market should start at least from $200,000.
Finally, let me share an annual summary I came across. There is a chart that I believe has valuable insights, showing the performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies over the past year. The ones that surged the most are HBAR, BGB, XML, and XRP, which we all know. But the key is to look at the last few that fell, like FET and TAO; these two are leaders in AI, and because they surged too much earlier in the year, they are now actually falling. Their value for money is quite high. Also, STX, which is a leader in Bitcoin Layer 2, as well as NEAR, TON, OP, and APT, are worth paying attention to.
In terms of future strategies, I will guide everyone to aim for the lucrative opportunities in altcoins, especially those with great potential, where an expected growth of over 10 times is not a problem. If you want to make big money in the bull market, like and comment, and I will take you through the entire bull market!
