According to the latest research by on-chain analyst CryptoChan, the 'Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Ratio' (LTH/STH Cost Basis Ratio) for BTC has recently dropped to 0.282. This key indicator has historically signaled the start of market bull runs multiple times:
On May 6, 2017, this indicator fell to 0.282, followed shortly by BTC's rapid rise from around $1,500 to the bull market peak of $20,000.
On December 24, 2020, this indicator again dropped to 0.281, after which BTC broke its previous high and climbed to a new record of nearly $69,000 in 2021.
Now, this indicator has fallen to 0.282 for the third time, almost perfectly aligning with the ranges at which the previous two bull markets started. From the chart, it can be seen that:
The black line above represents BTC's price trend, and the current price has steadily rebounded, showing a gradual upward trend typical of the early stages of a bull market.
The blue curve below represents the LTH/STH Cost Basis Ratio. As this ratio declines to historical lows, it indicates that the chips of short-term holders are approaching the cost price of long-term holders, with market sentiment and chip structure tending toward the typical state before a bull market.
Currently, BTC's price trend is highly consistent with the historical cycles of this indicator's fluctuations, further reinforcing market expectations for the start of a bull market. Combined with on-chain data and capital flow analysis, perhaps a new round of frenzied market conditions is already on the way.
Future points to observe:
Can BTC maintain its upward trend and further break through significant resistance levels?
Will the distribution of capital and chips maintain a healthy pattern, supporting a shift in market sentiment toward a fully bullish outlook?
Will history repeat itself? Has the bull market already begun? The upcoming trends will be the focus of market attention!