Why I believe the Bitcoin bull market has not yet ended, historical data reveals future trends!
Recently, the price of cryptocurrencies has plummeted, reaching a low of $93,000 yesterday, with other altcoins also generally falling by 20-30%. This has caused panic among many, with some even believing that the bull market has ended. But I can confidently say that the bull market is not over.
One reason is the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, although the situation may improve after Trump takes office.
Another reason is that Christmas is approaching in the West.
Currently, institutional funds account for an increasing proportion of the cryptocurrency market. During the long 7-day holiday, some institutions may choose to withdraw funds to avoid risks. After all, the cryptocurrency market trades continuously 24 hours a day, and if institutional personnel encounter a price crash while on vacation, they would certainly be very frustrated. Therefore, they would rather withdraw funds to mitigate risks.
Let's take a look at the historical price performance of Bitcoin around Christmas (see the chart below). Here, only data from 2017 and onwards is listed, as institutions rarely engaged in the cryptocurrency market prior to this, and large-scale institutional entry occurred during the last bull market.
From the table data, the period of 2022 - 2023 is in a bear market, so the Bitcoin price has hardly changed; 2021 was the end of the bull market, with prices declining; 2020 was the prelude to the 2021 bull market, with prices rising; prices fell in 2018 - 2019; and 2017 was a major bull market, with prices rising after Christmas.
According to this pattern, the current trend is likely to rise after Christmas, as this bull market may be similar to the situation in early 2023.
