Boss, when selling, please let me know. Thank you in advance.

1. The trend of long-term holders with positions exceeding one year.

This data is, to date, the only one that has not been falsified, and I still believe it to be the most valuable reference data for market tops. There are almost no exceptions; of course, I mean within my personal data system. I am just an ordinary person, and there may be many data points I am unaware of, so let’s not argue. There may indeed be more effective data that I do not know, but that is outside the scope of our discussion.

From the data, we can see that the four green intervals correspond to the peaks after four halvings. The fourth one is the current cycle, which is obviously not over yet. From the previous three cycles, we can observe that when long-term holders with positions exceeding one year reduce their holdings to the lowest point, it often corresponds to the peaks in Bitcoin prices. I know many friends will say that tops are sold, and that’s correct. Still, it’s worth repeating that we are looking at results, not engaging in debates.

Whether it's the long-term holders exiting due to high prices or the price peaks caused by long-term holders exiting, they correspond one-to-one. I have roughly sketched what I think the overall trend is, so please forgive my lack of talent in drawing. The sketch is a general illustration of the trend and does not correspond to actual prices. From a cyclical perspective, we should now be entering the 20% to 30% stage of a bull market cycle, with about 30% left until the peak.

Moreover, even when it's time to exit at the peak, it should correspond to a long-term holder's "rounded bottom" position, rather than a one-time exit. This does not mean selling at the highest point, but within the highest range. For example, if $110,000 is the highest point, the rounded top should correspond to a range between $100,000 and $110,000.

So, if we look at it this way, the bull market is likely to continue for about another 3 months, after which it will start to decline. Although it will still be a bull market, it will be at the end of the bull market.