VanEck Asset Management stated that the United States could reduce national debt by 35% over the next 24 years if it creates a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins, according to a bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis.
VanEck estimates that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to $42.3 million by 2049, while the national debt of the United States increases at a CAGR of 5% from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion during the same period.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20 that: "This reserve could account for about 35% of the national debt by 2049, offsetting a payable debt of approximately $42 trillion."
This duo's "optimistic" scenario assumes a 25% CAGR for Bitcoin starting from a price of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,360 and will need to double to reach VanEck's stated starting price.
The price of Bitcoin rising to $42.3 million means it would account for about 18% of the world's financial assets — a significant increase from the approximately 0.22% it currently holds in the $900 trillion market.
The upcoming administration of Donald Trump proposed the idea of a Bitcoin reserve, a move that drove the price of Bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has not yet been considered by the Senate or the House of Representatives.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers stated earlier this month that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office to designate Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the United States could repurpose 198,100 Bitcoins that it holds from asset seizures while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoins could be funded through emergency support functions, selling part of its $455 billion gold reserve for Bitcoin, or a combination of both - all without the need to print money and taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
The adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and business levels in the United States will also boost Bitcoin and Ether. Sigel and Frankovitz stated the company's estimated CAGR for the exchange-traded fund.
Member countries of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of Bitcoin and lead to its increased use as a currency, Sigel explained in a post on December 21 on X.
They noted that: "Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a payment currency for global trade by countries looking to avoid a sudden spike in USD sanctions that have been applied."
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