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Written by: 0xWeilan
As a psychological barrier, the $100,000 resistance effect depends on the strength of the holders' will. This week's trend indicates that once the large trends of funds and sentiment are formed, breaking through the psychological barrier is only a matter of time.
After four consecutive weeks of gains, BTC fell and then rose this week, opening at $101,400, subsequently dipping to close at $104,447.76. After clearing out profit-taking floating positions and retesting the 5-week moving average, it gradually rose, ultimately surpassing $104,000 on Sunday.
This week, the U.S. released CPI and PPI data, which met expectations and were slightly negative, but the adjusted cryptocurrency market seems to have entered a 'zero-risk' gradual upward phase under continuous inflow of funds.
Macroeconomic and financial data
This week, the U.S. announced that the seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.7% at the end of November, rising for the second consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the largest increase since April.
After the CPI data was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates before the end of 2025. They expect that by then, there will be a cumulative rate cut of 87 basis points. This means that in addition to a 25 basis point cut next week, the Fed will likely cut rates another two times in 2025, each by 25 basis points. This level of rate cuts is one less than the four times proposed in the latest quarterly dot plot from September.
In the U.S. stock market, there were mixed results. The Nasdaq rose by 0.34%, while the Dow and S&P 500 fell by 1.82% and 0.64%, respectively. London gold slightly increased by 0.16%.
This week, the European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points again, bringing the deposit rate down from 3.25% to 3%, and hinted that further rate cuts would continue.
In China, the Central Economic Work Conference stated that 'more proactive macro policies should be implemented to stabilize the real estate and stock markets,' followed by the Central Finance Work Conference stating 'more proactive fiscal policies should be implemented to increase the fiscal deficit rate. Moderate monetary easing should be implemented, with timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts.' This marks the Chinese government's re-emphasis on 'moderate easing' monetary policy after a 14-year hiatus.
From the perspective of various countries, in 2025, the U.S. will face policy turbulence, potentially experiencing a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in rate cuts; in Europe and China, economic growth may continue to decline, necessitating the adoption of loose monetary policies to stimulate weak economic growth.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Although the Christmas holiday is approaching and market trading days are becoming lighter, the cryptocurrency market still maintains relatively ample capital inflow. This week, BTC Spot ETF inflows reached $2.174 billion, and stablecoin channels saw inflows of $3.768 billion, totaling $5.941 billion, which is a decrease from last week but remains at a high level.
Sell-off
This week, a total of 268,581 BTC was transferred to exchanges by both long and short positions, with 256,826 BTC from short positions and 11,755 BTC from long positions, marking the second-largest selling week since November.
Surging buying power, especially the funds absorbed by the BTC Spot ETF channel, alleviated selling pressure. The centralized exchanges' stock decreased by 27,901 BTC over the week.
According to eMerge Engine under EMC Labs, the short position floating profit has decreased from a previous high of 33% to 25%, which is a neutral level for this bull market.
Especially, the decisive long position selling during the cycle phase has been continuously declining, and the BTC price is expected to rise above $100,000, gradually climbing amid fluctuations.
Cycle indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and exhibiting strong upward momentum.
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EMC Labs (Yongshi Labs) was founded by cryptocurrency investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investment in the Crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as core competitiveness, dedicated to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting the benefits of blockchain and cryptocurrency assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
