Encrypted internal reference, Butcher dissects the ox 12-23
1 Focus on financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, the probability of not cutting interest rates today is 89.3% (watch for risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to an agreement. (Today's gold price 2624.45 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.56 Friday Japan announces unemployment rate
(4) On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 619.7 BTC, totaling 9.5 billion yen (approximately 60.68 million USD), increasing total BTC holdings to 1761.98 BTC.
(5) On December 23, Trump appointed former college football player and Republican House candidate Bo Hines as the executive director of the Presidential Digital Asset Advisory Council, which Trump referred to as the "Crypto Council."
2 On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 54 (neutral - down 5 from yesterday)
(2) ETF dynamics: two consecutive days of negative inflow (watch for risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2 eh/s, transaction fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822 USD
(4) Today's BTC position-weighted funding rate: 0.0093% (funding rate normal range slightly fluctuates)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.25%, negatively correlated, slight decline
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: oscillating market, BTC 93700 USD tests support level then slightly rebounds, tests the upper pressure level of 97724, observe subsequent conditions after the US stock market opens in the evening. ETF needs to restore net inflows to confirm a trend change! Otherwise, continue to oscillate
(7) Daily trading philosophy: Life is like chess, no regrets in placing pieces. Act wisely, choice precedes effort!
Recent potential positive factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to FTT token trends)
2. Market after Christmas
3. Institutions starting new layouts after year-end settlements
Recent potential negative factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike betrayal (January/March)
2. The US pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option volatility on December 27 (pain point 84000 USD, nominal amount 14.209 billion USD)
The above content is for information sharing only,
not constituting any investment advice!
Investing involves risks; proceed with caution!
