In 2024, the BTC halving, ETF approvals, and Trump’s victory spurred market growth, and the crypto market is expected to continue expanding in 2025, particularly driven by BTC, altcoins, and the tokenization of RWA assets.
As we step into 2025, reflecting on 2024, the crypto market has undergone significant transformation and development. The strong growth of BTC and the rise of altcoins have rapidly transformed the entire industry. Let’s delve into the key trends of 2024 and look ahead to the market dynamics of 2025.
1. Major Trends for 2024: BTC and Altcoins
1) BTC Halving Sparks Bull Market
In 2024, the BTC halving event became a catalyst for a bull market, with prices soaring by 146% and performing impressively. The halving event occurs approximately every four years, reducing the rewards miners receive for validating transactions. Due to the reduced supply of new BTC, this scarcity often triggers significant market volatility.
Historically, BTC’s price has typically experienced significant growth after each halving. For example, after the halving in 2016, the price soared from $650 to $20,000 in just over a year. After the 2020 halving, it rose from about $8,000 to a peak of $69,000 in 2021.
2) Approval of BTC and Ethereum ETFs
In 2024, the approval of BTC and Ether ETFs became milestone events for the crypto market, significantly advancing institutional participation. The long-awaited approval of spot ETFs by the SEC has become a reality, enabling traditional traders to access BTC within a regulated and convenient framework. This approval has brought a surge of institutional capital, with BTC's price rising significantly after the announcement.
Similarly, the approval of the Ether ETF has elevated ETH's status as a trading asset. With the SEC approving a spot ETH ETF, traditional financial institutions will include ETH in their portfolios, further solidifying Ether's important position as a second choice in the broader crypto market.
Latest data shows that institutions currently hold about 20% of all BTC trading ETFs in the U.S. Although the institutional adoption rate of BlackRock's IBIT is below average at just 18.38%, its total BTC holdings lead at over 71,000 BTC. Grayscale's GBTC follows closely, with institutional holdings of 44,707.89 BTC, accounting for 20.25% of its shareholders; while Fidelity's FBTC ranks third with institutional holdings of 44,623.23 BTC, representing 24.14% of its shares.
ARK 21Shares' ARKB has performed outstandingly in terms of institutional adoption, with 32.8% of its shares held by asset managers, equating to 17,166 BTC. In contrast, Grayscale's BTC mini trust has the lowest level of institutional participation at 1.52%; =BRRRR ranks lowest in terms of institutional holdings, with approximately 451.26 BTC.
Leaked information indicates that the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, is negotiating to acquire shares of the BTC spot ETF 'King'.
These approvals open the door for future applications for other crypto ETFs. Currently, the SEC is reviewing over 10 ETF applications, including SOL and XRP, which relates to further developments driven by institutional interest in broader crypto. These developments could promote further adoption and price vitality across the entire crypto market.
3) Trump Wins Presidential Election
Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 proved to be a game changer for the crypto market. Trump’s supportive stance on crypto and his public discussion of using BTC as a potential tool for U.S. debt greatly boosted market confidence. This bold vision aligns with his broader policies supporting business and deregulation, igniting optimism among traders and institutions.
After being elected, BTC broke through the $100,000 mark. The market anticipates that the Trump administration will adopt crypto-friendly policies, promoting further adoption and fostering innovation in the blockchain space. His victory also sparked discussions about integrating crypto into a broader economic framework, creating a favorable environment for digital asset prosperity.
2. Key Events to Watch in 2025
1) BTC as a Global Economic Policy Tool
One of the most striking developments is the discussion about using BTC as a tool for the U.S. debt crisis. This innovative idea was first proposed during Trump’s campaign and has gradually gained support, attracting global attention. The proposal for creating a 'strategic BTC reserve' similar to the current gold reserves of the Federal Reserve is being supported. This reserve could serve as an alternative asset to address sovereign debt challenges, showcasing BTC's potential as a legitimate reserve asset.
The U.S. debt crisis, driven by record high borrowing and ongoing fiscal imbalances, has prompted policymakers to explore unconventional solutions. Proponents argue that holding BTC as a reserve can hedge against inflation and, through the financial toolbox of a tax state, make it impossible for Turkish debt to devalue against the dollar.
On a national level, following El Salvador's groundbreaking initiative, countries like Tonga, Paraguay, and Panama are considering adopting BTC as legal tender. Driven by significant factors such as economic opportunity, financial inclusivity, and remittance efficiency, these nations aim to harness the potential of crypto to modernize their financial systems and attract global investment.
Moreover, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that establishing a strategic BTC reserve in China is significant. He pointed out that despite the unpredictable nature of China's crypto policies, the country is capable of making swift decisions in this domain. Zhao emphasized that if other countries begin to establish BTC reserves, China could soon maintain a leading position in global financial competition.
Large companies like Amazon and Microsoft are also receiving inquiries from shareholders about investing part of their corporate reserves in BTC. Although Microsoft’s shareholders voted against including BTC in their asset custody based on the board's recommendations, their engagement in related discussions indicates a shift among large companies in exploring potential BTC use cases, laying the groundwork for broader applications in the coming years.
2) Approval of other crypto ETFs
Building on the success of BTC and Ether ETFs, 2025 could be a turning point for other crypto ETFs, including SOL and XRP. Although the SEC rejected the application for a Solana ETF, it remains among over 10 applications, indicating sustained interest in investment options based on expanded crypto.
Ongoing scrutiny leaves room for optimism, as the maturity of the market and regulatory clarity may pave the way for market approvals, enhancing market liquidity and investor confidence.
3) Widespread Adoption of Real World Assets (RWA)
By 2025, the trend of tokenization of real world assets (RWA) is expected to accelerate, fundamentally changing the interaction between traditional finance and blockchain technology. Real estate, commodities, and even art are being transformed into blockchain-based tokens, enabling fractional ownership and broader accessibility.
According to CoinGecko, tokenization could unlock trillions of dollars in illiquid assets, enabling these assets to be traded within the crypto ecosystem. This transition builds a bridge between traditional finance and digital finance, providing traders with new communication channels and driving innovation across various industries.
4) End of the Halving Cycle
Historically, the cycles following BTC halvings typically lead to prolonged price increases, often lasting up to a year (approximately 365 days). This trend suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will be dominated by the residual effects of the 2024 halving event, with market optimism driving price increases. The halving reduces miners' rewards, leading to supply constraints and increased demand, creating a favorable environment for BTC's growth. This effect is expected to last until April 2025, providing ample opportunities for the market and traders.
3) Predictions for 2025: Outlook for the Crypto Market
1) BTC Predictions
Based on the strong momentum in 2024, combined with anticipated key events in 2025, the growth trajectory of BTC looks very promising. A logarithmic analysis of BTC's monthly chart shows that BTC is currently stabilizing within an ascending channel, approaching a key axis point similar to past bull market cycles.
Optimistic forecasts suggest that BTC could reach the upper boundary of this channel, with a potential value increase of 154%. This trend aligns with historical post-halving performance, where BTC's price could reach $250,000, further solidifying its position as a leader in the crypto market.
2) Total Crypto Market Cap Predictions
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization shows strong bullish momentum, currently forming an ascending wedge pattern. Historically, rebounds during bull market cycles typically target the upper boundary of this structure. With the current rebound from the lower trend line, the upper boundary is expected to reach $3.4 trillion, representing a potential 270% growth.
3) Predictions for the Total Market Cap of the Top Ten Cryptocurrencies
At the same time, the total market capitalization of the top ten cryptocurrencies is forming a classic 'cup and handle' pattern on the monthly chart. The market is currently testing the resistance level of $370 billion. If this key level is broken, it could trigger a 317% increase, with a potential target of $1.6 trillion, signaling the start of a strong altcoin season.
4) Conclusion
The cryptocurrency market is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by important milestones in 2024, such as the BTC halving rebound, ETF approvals, and Trump’s supportive policies for crypto. With BTC potentially integrating into the economic framework, increased adoption of altcoins, and the tokenization of RWA assets, the market is at the forefront of innovation and expansion. Despite regulatory challenges, the outlook remains optimistic, with BTC likely reaching new heights and the crypto ecosystem reshaping traditional finance.
This article is for reference only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Please note that the crypto market is highly volatile, and thorough research should be conducted before investing.
