How much eth sees?
Regarding this question, I have heard many speculations, such as 6k, 8k, 1w-1.5w, etc. Most of these predictions are based on historical data: for example, the last round of Ethereum (ETH) rose to 4800, how is the increase compared to the high point of the previous round, and the logic that the increase in this round may be attenuated by the previous round, such as the previous round rose 4 times, and this round is expected to rise 2.5-3 times.
However, this prediction method is essentially a kind of thinking of cutting the boat to find the sword. Take Bitcoin (BTC) as an example. During the bull market in 2017, BTC rose from around 2800 to nearly 19000, an increase of about 6 times. According to this logic, starting from the bottom of 4000 in March 2020, the increase should be less than 6 times, that is, the peak should be between 1.5w-2w. But the fact is that BTC subsequently rushed to 6.9w. At that time, many conservative investors had cleared their positions when they were less than 1w.
The core of the cycle theory lies in the commodity theory, which is based on the induction of the cyclical changes in supply and demand. But when it comes to ETH, although it is not a security from a regulatory perspective, it is far-fetched to regard it as a commodity. ETH's iteration speed and innovation far exceed most Internet companies, and the premise for commodities to be affected by cyclical factors such as production costs, market demand, and circulation is their "invariance". From this perspective, ETH does not fully conform to the framework of commodity cycle theory. In contrast, BTC may have certain applicability.
British philosopher Karl Popper pointed out in "The Poverty of Historicism": "Prediction itself can affect the predicted event." Most cycle speculation, technical analysis, and quantitative trading are based on the assumption that "history will repeat itself", that is, the frequency of history is equal to the probability of the future. But when everyone uses statistical laws to predict tops and bottoms, the predictive effectiveness of statistics will quickly fail.
The future is not a simple repetition of the past, but an extension and transcendence of the past. The interaction between predictors and predictive behavior often causes the market to deviate from equilibrium, which Soros calls "reflexivity".
At present, there are about 600 million cryptocurrency holders worldwide, accounting for 5% of the world's population, and there are even fewer on-chain users. ETH is still in the early adopter stage, and most users use it for specific purposes. Only when ETH truly enters the mainstream market can it usher in nonlinear growth.
The primary market Ethereum chain Musk concept 𝐩𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐞𝐬 is worth paying attention to!
